ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a>'s 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.</li>
<li>The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GOTO</a> remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.
The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.

GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Entering New Territory

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.</li>
<li>CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.
CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CaoCao (2643 HK) 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> remains optimistic for the coming year, with increasing focus on converting hemat users to take up more premium products and it expands its suite of fintech offerings. </li>
<li>Focus on profitability will remain core, with an emphasis on product-led initiatives such as GoFood Plus and GoFood Express, and increasing emphasis on growing its fintech offering across products. </li>
<li>GoTo is increasingly using AI to improve both the customer experience and improve efficiencies. Advertising will increasingly become a tool to improve take rates with Tokopedia providing valuable cash flow.  </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia remains optimistic for the coming year, with increasing focus on converting hemat users to take up more premium products and it expands its suite of fintech offerings. 
Focus on profitability will remain core, with an emphasis on product-led initiatives such as GoFood Plus and GoFood Express, and increasing emphasis on growing its fintech offering across products. 
GoTo is increasingly using AI to improve both the customer experience and improve efficiencies. Advertising will increasingly become a tool to improve take rates with Tokopedia providing valuable cash flow.  


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 2Q2023 results. Gross revenue increased 5.6% YoY to IDR5.83trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.21trn vs IDR4.3trn in 2Q2022.</li>
<li>The company’s cost discipline measures have helped cut down on losses but growth rates have seen huge declines over the last few quarters.</li>
<li>Demand for food delivery has declined in Indonesia while entry of TikToK Shop has posed significant threat on Tokopedia, Shopee and other e-commerce platforms in the country.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) reported 2Q2023 results. Gross revenue increased 5.6% YoY to IDR5.83trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.21trn vs IDR4.3trn in 2Q2022.
The company’s cost discipline measures have helped cut down on losses but growth rates have seen huge declines over the last few quarters.
Demand for food delivery has declined in Indonesia while entry of TikToK Shop has posed significant threat on Tokopedia, Shopee and other e-commerce platforms in the country.


GoTo: Cost Cutting Measures Pay Off but What About Growth?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.</li>
<li>However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.</li>
<li>With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.
However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.
With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?


GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Entering New Territory

GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from...

Angus Mackintosh

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CaoCao plans to raise US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn. Our valuation analysis suggests that though priced at a discount to global ride-hailing...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia remains optimistic for the coming year, with an increasing focus on converting hemat users to take up more premium products...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo: Cost Cutting Measures Pay Off but What About Growth?

GoTo's cost discipline measures have helped cut down losses but growth rates have been falling. There has been a sudden increase in incentives and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

GoTo's losses narrowed down further with huge cuts to promotions and selling and marketing costs. However, growth rates have started to slow down...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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