Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)</a> announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok  which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.</li>
<li>TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.</li>
<li>It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok  which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.
TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.
It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.


GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.</li>
<li>There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.
There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. 

GoTo will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.</li>
<li>However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.</li>
<li>With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.
However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.
With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?


GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IDX has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of <strong>66.4%</strong> at the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/buyung-poetra-sembada-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28454:1" rel="noopener">Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX80 index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. </li>
</ul>


The IDX has announced that GoTo (GOTO IJ) will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of 66.4% at the close on 7 June.

Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ) will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ) will be deleted from the IDX80 index.
Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on GoTo (GOTO IJ). Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. 


GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  </li>
<li>1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>'s guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.</li>
</ul>



GoTo announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  
1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.


GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

GoTo's move to sell a majority stake in Tokopedia at a time the business is nearing positive EBITDA has surprised us, and we think TikTok will...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - TikTok Taking Tokopedia

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

GoTo's losses narrowed down further with huge cuts to promotions and selling and marketing costs. However, growth rates have started to slow down...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

IDX will add GOTO to the IDX30, LQ45 & IDX80 indices at the close on 7 June. A float of 66.4% (vs 4% real float) will require passive trackers to...

Brian Freitas

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to...

Angus Mackintosh

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