Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gold fever continues Down Under as <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a></strong> enters into a Scheme with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN)</a></strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.</li>
<li>Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.</li>
</ul>


Gold fever continues Down Under as Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) enters into a Scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN).
OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.
Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.


OceanaGold (OGC CN) Claims Ausgold (AUC AU). Clean Deal

South Africa

Gold Fields Ltd is a gold producer with annualised production of approx. 2.0 million gold equivalent ounces from six operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa. The Company has four major projects at resource development or feasibility level.

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Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

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