Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game (AGI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, and of course, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ainsworth Game (AGI AU), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and of course, Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), and Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

James Hardie Industries Plc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/james-hardie-industries-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10937:1" rel="noopener">James Hardie (JHX AU)</a>'s merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azek-co-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36947:1" rel="noopener">Azek (AZEK US)</a> isn’t inherently a "bad" deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.</li>
<li>The Biden Administration's USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.</li>
<li>The irony is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.</li>
</ul>



James Hardie (JHX AU)'s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a "bad" deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
The Biden Administration's USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
The irony is that CKH (1 HK)'s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.


Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-storage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18193:1" rel="noopener">Public Storage (PSA US)</a>'s NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal discussed this week: Public Storage (PSA US)'s NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for Abacus Storage King (ASK AU).
Key updates/news took place on Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Canvest Environmental (1381 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics

South Africa

Gold Fields Ltd is a gold producer with annualised production of approx. 2.0 million gold equivalent ounces from six operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa. The Company has four major projects at resource development or feasibility level.

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Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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