Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>After the crazy sell-off 2 weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> for a moment was stuck in a pattern where it appeared it could sell-off more, but we were wrong.</li>
<li>It started to trend up again and now is closing up its second week in a row, entering, once again, OVERBOUGHT territory.</li>
<li>If the trend continues it can go up for another 2 weeks, and in this insight we will analyze what is the most probable profit target for this rally.</li>
</ul>


After the crazy sell-off 2 weeks ago, Gold (GOLD COMDTY) for a moment was stuck in a pattern where it appeared it could sell-off more, but we were wrong.
It started to trend up again and now is closing up its second week in a row, entering, once again, OVERBOUGHT territory.
If the trend continues it can go up for another 2 weeks, and in this insight we will analyze what is the most probable profit target for this rally.


GOLD Tactical Outlook: The Trend Has (Not) Changed

<ul>
<li>In our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tactical-outlook-where-is-gold-going" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gold tactical outlook/insight</a> on Jan 26 we signaled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> was massively overbought, the metal started to fall hard the following week.</li>
<li>The pullback was followed by a furious 2-day rally, and now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> is back to really overbought levels! (at least according to our WEEKLY models).</li>
<li>We are wondering if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> is about to crash again, if the recent rally was just a dead-cat bounce. It's an hypothesis worth considering.</li>
</ul>


In our last Gold tactical outlook/insight on Jan 26 we signaled Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was massively overbought, the metal started to fall hard the following week.
The pullback was followed by a furious 2-day rally, and now Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is back to really overbought levels! (at least according to our WEEKLY models).
We are wondering if Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is about to crash again, if the recent rally was just a dead-cat bounce. It's an hypothesis worth considering.


GOLD Tactical Outlook: Downside Risk Re-Emerging

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Precious metals have entered a high-volatility, paper-driven regime, but persistent central-bank physical buying and Asian demand continue to anchor long-term value despite violent price swings.</li>
<li>The widening divergence between Western paper prices and Shanghai physical premiums signals liquidation-driven dislocations rather than fundamental weakness, creating tactical entry opportunities for disciplined investors.</li>
<li>Investors should trade short-term volatility while accumulating strategic exposure, as gold and silver remain structurally supported with upside targets of USD5,400/oz and USD105/oz by end-2026.</li>
</ul>


Precious metals have entered a high-volatility, paper-driven regime, but persistent central-bank physical buying and Asian demand continue to anchor long-term value despite violent price swings.
The widening divergence between Western paper prices and Shanghai physical premiums signals liquidation-driven dislocations rather than fundamental weakness, creating tactical entry opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors should trade short-term volatility while accumulating strategic exposure, as gold and silver remain structurally supported with upside targets of USD5,400/oz and USD105/oz by end-2026.


When Gold & Silver Trades Like Bitcoin  "What to Do"

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>At this point of time these massive swings in precious metals are clearly driven by speculants. During the week we had extreme intraday swings.</li><li>Friday was the most agressive selling day. Gold lost 12% during a day which for an often called safe haven asset is crazy.</li><li>The more volatile silver even had an intraday price swing of 35%. </li></ul>

At this point of time these massive swings in precious metals are clearly driven by speculants. During the week we had extreme intraday swings.Friday was the most agressive selling day. Gold lost 12% during a day which for an often called safe haven asset is crazy.The more volatile silver even had an intraday price swing of 35%. 

Historic Metals Crash: How we view these massive swings in Gold, Silver and Platinum

<ul>
<li>The price gap between gold on the US Comex and in Shanghai has widened and is significantly larger than normal.</li>
<li>Price divergence is due to paper vs. physical - the US is mainly driven by futures and paper trading, while Shanghai is real physical supply and demand.</li>
<li>Arbitrage is not possible due to logistical and regulatory barriers. The gap will have to narrow, with paper gold heading higher to match the physical price! </li>
</ul>


The price gap between gold on the US Comex and in Shanghai has widened and is significantly larger than normal.
Price divergence is due to paper vs. physical - the US is mainly driven by futures and paper trading, while Shanghai is real physical supply and demand.
Arbitrage is not possible due to logistical and regulatory barriers. The gap will have to narrow, with paper gold heading higher to match the physical price! 


Same Product, Two Different Prices - The GOLD'en Opportunity

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

GOLD Tactical Outlook: The Trend Has (Not) Changed

Gold rebounded after a large sell-off, rallying for 2 weeks in a row and now entering overbought territory. We see potential for continued upward...

Nico Rosti

GOLD Tactical Outlook: Downside Risk Re-Emerging

Analysis of our quant model shows that the 2-day rally after the recent sharp fall brought Gold back (again) into overbought territory, leaving us...

Nico Rosti

When Gold & Silver Trades Like Bitcoin "What to Do"

Precious metals are experiencing crypto-like volatility driven by paper markets, but central-bank buying and Asian physical demand continue to...

Mo Aziz

Historic Metals Crash: How we view these massive swings in Gold, Silver and Platinum

At this point of time these massive swings in precious metals are clearly driven by speculants. During the week we had extreme intraday swings.

The Commodity Report

Same Product, Two Different Prices - The GOLD'en Opportunity

The widening US Comex–Shanghai gold price gap reflects paper vs physical trading. History shows physical prevails long term, making the current...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GOLD Tactical Outlook: The Trend Has (Not) Changed

​Gold rebounded after a large sell-off, rallying for 2 weeks in a row and now entering overbought territory. We see potential for continued upward...

Nico Rosti

GOLD Tactical Outlook: Downside Risk Re-Emerging

​Analysis of our quant model shows that the 2-day rally after the recent sharp fall brought Gold back (again) into overbought territory, leaving us...

Nico Rosti

When Gold & Silver Trades Like Bitcoin "What to Do"

Precious metals are experiencing crypto-like volatility driven by paper markets, but central-bank buying and Asian physical demand continue to...

Mo Aziz

Historic Metals Crash: How we view these massive swings in Gold, Silver and Platinum

At this point of time these massive swings in precious metals are clearly driven by speculants. During the week we had extreme intraday swings.

The Commodity Report

Same Product, Two Different Prices - The GOLD'en Opportunity

The widening US Comex–Shanghai gold price gap reflects paper vs physical trading. History shows physical prevails long term, making the current...

Mo Aziz

Gold rebounded after a large sell-off, rallying for 2 weeks in a row and now entering overbought territory. We see potential for continued upward...

Analysis of our quant model shows that the 2-day rally after the recent sharp fall brought Gold back (again) into overbought territory, leaving us...