Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

Demand for safe-haven assets like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>  should rise further
<ul>
<li>US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.</li>
<li>German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.</li>
<li>Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.</li>
</ul>

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)  should rise further

US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.
German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.
Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.


Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms evident in many of the gold mining stocks, and view this as a timely entry point to add exposure to the gold miners.  In today’s report we highlight numerous actionable names, many of which have dual-listings in the U.S. and Canada.

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms evident in many of the gold mining stocks, and view this as a timely entry point to add exposure to the gold miners.  In today’s report we highlight numerous actionable names, many of which have dual-listings in the U.S. and Canada.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We wanted to update fresh add levels to gold in light of upside pressure on the macro breakout point and the lack of a pullback to work with.More tactical support points and upside targets are featured as well as our base case macro upside target levels once we clear 1,370.We see a number of factors that support a gold breakout. Spec positioning is light, central bank demand, USD lacking an impulse for direction, diminishing rising rate risk and disappointment after the G20 meeting.We have been adding in some gold shares which continue to outperform gold and will impulsive higher once gold breaks out.

We wanted to update fresh add levels to gold in light of upside pressure on the macro breakout point and the lack of a pullback to work with.More tactical support points and upside targets are featured as well as our base case macro upside target levels once we clear 1,370.We see a number of factors that support a gold breakout. Spec positioning is light, central bank demand, USD lacking an impulse for direction, diminishing rising rate risk and disappointment after the G20 meeting.We have been adding in some gold shares which continue to outperform gold and will impulsive higher once gold breaks out.

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive.

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive. 

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) should rise further US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in...

Charles Spencer

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this...

Greg Gibbs

Return of the Gold Trade: Buy the Miners

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms...

Vermilion Research

Gold Fresh Support Points

We wanted to update fresh add levels to gold in light of upside pressure on the macro breakout point and the lack of a pullback to work with.More...

Thomas Schroeder

Macro Bullish Gold

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which...

Thomas Schroeder

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