Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Investors dumped stocks and other risk assets, including oil, and fled into the safe havens of US dollar, the yen and gold last week, as the US and China continued to give each other a bloody nose in what appears to be turning into a no-holds-barred trade war.
Crude settled at three-and-a-half-month lows on Friday. It appears to have surrendered the entire "deal premium" that it had progressively stacked on since around February, when talks between Beijing and Washington picked up pace and started promising a breakthrough. 
Oil is unlikely to break free anytime soon from sentiment in the financial markets, which in turn will remain beholden to the twists and turns in the US-China trade war. However, further  downside for crude is limited. We explain why.

Investors dumped stocks and other risk assets, including oil, and fled into the safe havens of US dollar, the yen and gold last week, as the US and China continued to give each other a bloody nose in what appears to be turning into a no-holds-barred trade war.
Crude settled at three-and-a-half-month lows on Friday. It appears to have surrendered the entire "deal premium" that it had progressively stacked on since around February, when talks between Beijing and Washington picked up pace and started promising a breakthrough. 
Oil is unlikely to break free anytime soon from sentiment in the financial markets, which in turn will remain beholden to the twists and turns in the US-China trade war. However, further  downside for crude is limited. We explain why.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Collapses in Trade War-Led Market Meltdown

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week).

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week). 

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

Macroeconomics

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies.  The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through April.  Chinese activity data slumped again in April, and the latest PMI data in the Eurozone, Japan and the USA for May are weak. Oil and copper prices have turned lower, suggesting that industrial activity remains weak.  We continue to see downside risk for still elevated US equities.  The strength in the USD to date is contributing to downward pressure on US equities.  The gains in the USD may have become over-extended.  China may pursue a more stable CNY for a period and lower US yields should support safe haven currencies, JPY, CHF and gold.

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies.  The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through April.  Chinese activity data slumped again in April, and the latest PMI data in the Eurozone, Japan and the USA for May are weak. Oil and copper prices have turned lower, suggesting that industrial activity remains weak.  We continue to see downside risk for still elevated US equities.  The strength in the USD to date is contributing to downward pressure on US equities.  The gains in the USD may have become over-extended.  China may pursue a more stable CNY for a period and lower US yields should support safe haven currencies, JPY, CHF and gold.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers.  The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an average inflation target, which should make them more sanguine if inflation rises above the 2% target and more responsive to signs that economic growth may be slowing.  We expect no substantive changes in policy guidance from the ECB this week.  The RBA has opportunities in a speech and the financial stability review this week, and its minutes next week to flesh out what appears to have been a shift to an easing bias earlier this month.

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers.  The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an average inflation target, which should make them more sanguine if inflation rises above the 2% target and more responsive to signs that economic growth may be slowing.  We expect no substantive changes in policy guidance from the ECB this week.  The RBA has opportunities in a speech and the financial stability review this week, and its minutes next week to flesh out what appears to have been a shift to an easing bias earlier this month.

Watch Out for Dovish Noises from the Fed and RBA

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Weekly Oil Views: Crude Collapses in Trade War-Led Market Meltdown

Investors dumped stocks and other risk assets, including oil, and fled into the safe havens of US dollar, the yen and gold last week, as the US and...

Vandana Hari

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation. They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The...

Greg Gibbs

The Global Recovery Narrative Crumbles

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus...

Greg Gibbs

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

Watch Out for Dovish Noises from the Fed and RBA

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers. The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an...

Greg Gibbs

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