Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.</li><li>According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.</li><li>The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.</li></ul>

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.

Spotlight on Issues We Believe Are Important, SmarterMarkets™

SmarterMarkets™

Spotlight on Issues We Believe Are Important

We created SmarterMarkets™ to put a spotlight on issues surrounding trust, identity, market infrastructure and technology that we believe are important, and to see if there were others out there who felt the same way. And there were a lot of people who felt the same way. 

The podcast, currently ranked in the top 1% of podcasts by listenership, is presented by Abaxx Technologies and brings together the entrepreneurs, icons, and executives of commodities, capital markets and technology to rant on the inadequacies of our systems and riff on ideas for how to improve them.

<ul>
<li>Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business</li>
<li>Scotiabank's success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business</li>
<li>Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank's success in the gold market</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business
Scotiabank's success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business
Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank's success in the gold market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries</li><li>International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries</li><li>Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuriesInternational investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. TreasuriesPotential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings...

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a>'s chances of global index inclusion in May. </li>
<li>The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. </li>
</ul>


Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)'s chances of global index inclusion in May. 
The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. 


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

<ul><li>The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.</li><li>Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.</li><li>Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.</li></ul>

The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold About To Lose Its Shine?

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long...

The Commodity Report

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank

Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses the iconic success of Scotiabank's gold business, highlighting their global physical...

SmarterMarkets™

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings...

Summary: Questions about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of U.S. treasuries have sparked a preference...

At Any Rate

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

A US$300m primary placement significantly improves Laopu Gold's chances of global index inclusion in Aug/Sep. Worth buying on dips while keeping an...

Brian Freitas

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

The Commodity Report

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