Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week, BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week

Featuring Colin Hamilton, Commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, Metal Matters discusses the hot topics in Global Metals & Mining each week.

Commodities

<ul><li>Record highs in gold and silver driven by North American ETF inflows</li><li>Stabilization of gold to silver price ratio suggests potential bottom as physical surplus widens</li><li>China's production data and aluminum prices under scrutiny, while tin outperforms other base metals due to supply and demand dynamics</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Record highs in gold and silver driven by North American ETF inflowsStabilization of gold to silver price ratio suggests potential bottom as physical surplus widensChina's production data and aluminum prices under scrutiny, while tin outperforms other base metals due to supply and demand dynamicsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Geopolitical Rupture and the Age of Metals Stockpiling

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Rules based world order is being upended at an unprecedented pace. Decades of global rules of interaction are being rewritten.</li>
<li>In times like these, investors obviously flock to haven assets seeking protection. Gold &amp; Silver prices are a true reflection of investors seeking safety against multi-dimensional risks.</li>
<li>Passive, mechanical, &amp; price-insensitive index re-balancing will likely create near term price pull-back but 2026 looks clearly bullish for precious metals. How much higher is another story?</li>
</ul>


Rules based world order is being upended at an unprecedented pace. Decades of global rules of interaction are being rewritten.
In times like these, investors obviously flock to haven assets seeking protection. Gold &amp; Silver prices are a true reflection of investors seeking safety against multi-dimensional risks.
Passive, mechanical, &amp; price-insensitive index re-balancing will likely create near term price pull-back but 2026 looks clearly bullish for precious metals. How much higher is another story?


Intensifying Geopolitics Collides With Annual Passive Gold & Silver Rebalancing Flows

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>During the year, we executed 60 portfolio trades. 34 of them were long positions, and 26 were short positions.</li><li>Those trades resulted in a portfolio performance (before trading costs) of 20.2% and an annualized volatility of 4.0%.</li><li>This results in a Sharpe Ratio of 2.99 (calculated with a risk-free rate of 4%) and is top tier also in the hedge fund world. </li></ul>

During the year, we executed 60 portfolio trades. 34 of them were long positions, and 26 were short positions.Those trades resulted in a portfolio performance (before trading costs) of 20.2% and an annualized volatility of 4.0%.This results in a Sharpe Ratio of 2.99 (calculated with a risk-free rate of 4%) and is top tier also in the hedge fund world. 

+20% Portfolio Return with Commodities - This was 2025

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.</li>
<li>AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.</li>
<li>BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.</li>
</ul>


MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.
AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.
BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.


Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> keeps rising steadily, while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.</li>
<li>According to our model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.</li>
<li>The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.


Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Geopolitical Rupture and the Age of Metals Stockpiling

Gold and silver prices reach new highs, silver momentum declining, Chinese crackdown on high frequency trading, base metals showing slight...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Intensifying Geopolitics Collides With Annual Passive Gold & Silver Rebalancing Flows

In some weeks, decades happen. This last week was one. Geopolitics remains front-and-centre. Index rebalancing headwinds are temporary. Expect...

Mint Finance

+20% Portfolio Return with Commodities - This was 2025

During the year, we executed 60 portfolio trades. 34 of them were long positions, and 26 were short positions.Those trades resulted in a portfolio...

The Commodity Report

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geopolitical Rupture and the Age of Metals Stockpiling

Gold and silver prices reach new highs, silver momentum declining, Chinese crackdown on high frequency trading, base metals showing slight...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Intensifying Geopolitics Collides With Annual Passive Gold & Silver Rebalancing Flows

In some weeks, decades happen. This last week was one. Geopolitics remains front-and-centre. Index rebalancing headwinds are temporary. Expect...

Mint Finance

+20% Portfolio Return with Commodities - This was 2025

During the year, we executed 60 portfolio trades. 34 of them were long positions, and 26 were short positions.Those trades resulted in a portfolio...

The Commodity Report

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

​MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

​While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...