Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Commodities

<ul><li>Gold and silver prices have been drifting lower as investors have shifted their focus to riskier assets.</li><li>Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid assets as reliable investment options.</li><li>However, the current robustness of nominal and real yields, equities, and credit has left precious metals vulnerable.</li></ul>

Gold and silver prices have been drifting lower as investors have shifted their focus to riskier assets.Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid assets as reliable investment options.However, the current robustness of nominal and real yields, equities, and credit has left precious metals vulnerable.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.</li><li>I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.</li><li>Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.</li></ul>

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

<ul><li>While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)</li><li>Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.</li><li>The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!</li></ul>

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

<ul><li>The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.</li><li>As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.</li><li>Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.</li></ul>

The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

<ul><li>Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.</li><li>If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.</li><li>US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.</li></ul>

Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.

Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative - Economic Situation Continues to Worsen

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold & Silver

Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid...

Untying The Gordian Knot

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.

The Commodity Report

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than...

The Commodity Report

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.

The Commodity Report

Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative - Economic Situation Continues to Worsen

If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the...

The Commodity Report

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