Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Gold has been left on the back burner as crypto takes the limelight of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and even rallied from the 1,680 long support and is due to break higher to challenge the key 1,780 bull/bear level represented by the descending wedge trendline resistance.</p><p>RSI exhibits a bull bias to break wedge resistance to spearhead a continuation of gold's rise. </p><p>A dip and breakout rise in the USD will induce clear headwinds for gold that aligns 1,780 capping this drive. It is this near term dip in the dollar (risk on) that will help lift gold.</p>

Gold has been left on the back burner as crypto takes the limelight of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and even rallied from the 1,680 long support and is due to break higher to challenge the key 1,780 bull/bear level represented by the descending wedge trendline resistance.RSI exhibits a bull bias to break wedge resistance to spearhead a continuation of gold's rise. A dip and breakout rise in the USD will induce clear headwinds for gold that aligns 1,780 capping this drive. It is this near term dip in the dollar (risk on) that will help lift gold.

<p>Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian buying opportunity.</p><p>Near term hurdles for gold stem from a USD bounce cycle and inflation expectations backing off.</p><p>Gold shares offer a more leveraged play. Bull wedge is clear in GDX as the proxy for gold shares with buy support near 34 and then again at a more extreme 31 support. A good macro set up that will reward by nearly 80%.</p>

Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian buying opportunity.Near term hurdles for gold stem from a USD bounce cycle and inflation expectations backing off.Gold shares offer a more leveraged play. Bull wedge is clear in GDX as the proxy for gold shares with buy support near 34 and then again at a more extreme 31 support. A good macro set up that will reward by nearly 80%.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> faces headwinds from steeper yield, a weaker USD and equity risk on pressures. Worth noting that gold has been trading more like a risk asset in recent months shifting away for a risk off hedge.</p><p>Gold's November 9th plunge saw the breakout above 1,920/40 fail with a fresh focus back on the 1,850 pivot.</p><p>The descending bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy near lower wedge support that currently runs near 1,820-00 depending with a slide in time translation. Bull wedge formations typically have a 70% probability of breaking to the upside.</p><p>Our macro stance remains bullish for gold which may need a DXY low near 90.50 and SPX high near 3,800 for a clearer upside path.</p><p>We seeing a buy level near 1,800 where the 200 dma, price and lower wedge support meet.</p>

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) faces headwinds from steeper yield, a weaker USD and equity risk on pressures. Worth noting that gold has been trading more like a risk asset in recent months shifting away for a risk off hedge.Gold's November 9th plunge saw the breakout above 1,920/40 fail with a fresh focus back on the 1,850 pivot.The descending bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy near lower wedge support that currently runs near 1,820-00 depending with a slide in time translation. Bull wedge formations typically have a 70% probability of breaking to the upside.Our macro stance remains bullish for gold which may need a DXY low near 90.50 and SPX high near 3,800 for a clearer upside path.We seeing a buy level near 1,800 where the 200 dma, price and lower wedge support meet.

<div>DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. Used Euro/JPY as our short vehicle to capture a Euro pullback.</div><div></div><div>We are alert to Euro shakeout risk given overly bullish positioning and watching momentum below trendline. This would surprise the dollar bears if positioning is squeezed.</div><div></div><div>DXY rally call from 92 to 95.00/80 in what is touted as a counter trend bounce sequence with risk of a sharper rise in October on risk aversion and support stemming from bull divergence. Macro posture is to sell the USD into October strength.</div><div></div><div>Gold is seeing a c wave decline tied to a stronger USD and questions over QE.  We view weakness as a buying opportunity near 1,850 and 1,800. Gold is expected to be able to shrug off a stronger dollar with market volatility becoming the primary driver in October. </div>

DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. Used Euro/JPY as our short vehicle to capture a Euro pullback.We are alert to Euro shakeout risk given overly bullish positioning and watching momentum below trendline. This would surprise the dollar bears if positioning is squeezed.DXY rally call from 92 to 95.00/80 in what is touted as a counter trend bounce sequence with risk of a sharper rise in October on risk aversion and support stemming from bull divergence. Macro posture is to sell the USD into October strength.Gold is seeing a c wave decline tied to a stronger USD and questions over QE.  We view weakness as a buying opportunity near 1,850 and 1,800. Gold is expected to be able to shrug off a stronger dollar with market volatility becoming the primary driver in October. 

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

<p>Parsing through our thematic database we find that the most recent leg up in gold, a +$200/oz move to &gt;$2000/oz in July-August, has been largely associated with the "fiscal cliff" of US benefit expiration and its potential impact on growth.  Thus, gold had been eagerly anticipating a macro-driven risk-off phase which did not materialize throughout the summer.  Unprecedented central bank balance sheet expansion drove great conviction in a secular bull market for gold on the premise that a multi-year inflationary phase has begun, but the increasing popularity of the trade may lead to conflation of short-term with long-term inflation; and as we highlighted earlier this week, we expect a downshift in short-term inflation expectations (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-cross-currents-in-the-us-rental-market-hint-at-pausing-inflation-expectations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43259" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations</a> , 9/15.) </p><p>Our text-mined indicators suggest sentiment on gold has been trending lower recently, both directly and indirectly via gold's macro drivers.  Ironically, softer short-term inflation expectations and shrinking estimates of the next phase of US stimulus are both USD-friendly, and thus potentially gold-unfriendly at this stage.</p>

Parsing through our thematic database we find that the most recent leg up in gold, a +$200/oz move to &gt;$2000/oz in July-August, has been largely associated with the "fiscal cliff" of US benefit expiration and its potential impact on growth.  Thus, gold had been eagerly anticipating a macro-driven risk-off phase which did not materialize throughout the summer.  Unprecedented central bank balance sheet expansion drove great conviction in a secular bull market for gold on the premise that a multi-year inflationary phase has begun, but the increasing popularity of the trade may lead to conflation of short-term with long-term inflation; and as we highlighted earlier this week, we expect a downshift in short-term inflation expectations (TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations , 9/15.) Our text-mined indicators suggest sentiment on gold has been trending lower recently, both directly and indirectly via gold's macro drivers.  Ironically, softer short-term inflation expectations and shrinking estimates of the next phase of US stimulus are both USD-friendly, and thus potentially gold-unfriendly at this stage.

TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold 1,780 Hurdle Out of Bull Flag

Gold has been left on the back burner of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and is due to break higher...

Thomas Schroeder

Gold and GDX Macro Bull Set Up

Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian...

Thomas Schroeder

Re Loading Gold Long

Gold's bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy (also where the 200 dma and price support coincide). Bull wedge formations have a 70% probability...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Risk Warnings and 1,850 Gold Buy Zone

DXY rise is gaining traction after the Euro broke below 1.18 trendline support per our fade call from 1.20 to 1.15. DXY rally call from 92 to...

Thomas Schroeder

TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration

Earlier this week, we wrote about a

Elan Gore

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