Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive.

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive. 

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week).

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week). 

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers.  The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an average inflation target, which should make them more sanguine if inflation rises above the 2% target and more responsive to signs that economic growth may be slowing.  We expect no substantive changes in policy guidance from the ECB this week.  The RBA has opportunities in a speech and the financial stability review this week, and its minutes next week to flesh out what appears to have been a shift to an easing bias earlier this month.

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers.  The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an average inflation target, which should make them more sanguine if inflation rises above the 2% target and more responsive to signs that economic growth may be slowing.  We expect no substantive changes in policy guidance from the ECB this week.  The RBA has opportunities in a speech and the financial stability review this week, and its minutes next week to flesh out what appears to have been a shift to an easing bias earlier this month.

Watch Out for Dovish Noises from the Fed and RBA

Our bullish gold view from 1,200 just kissed the formidable topside resistance near 1,350 with increasing signs of the current up leg exhausting.The standout chart feature stems from the most recent highs have not been confirmed by the daily RSI and MACD for a case of bear divergence amid a rising wedge. This divergence along with the physical barrier at 1,350-60 sets up a compelling short trade.Well defined MACD triangulation denotes clean breakout points. RSI will give us good lead signals on a break below trend/pattern support.A peak in gold may tie in with a firming USD bias and exhaustive moves in base metals.

Our bullish gold view from 1,200 just kissed the formidable topside resistance near 1,350 with increasing signs of the current up leg exhausting.The standout chart feature stems from the most recent highs have not been confirmed by the daily RSI and MACD for a case of bear divergence amid a rising wedge. This divergence along with the physical barrier at 1,350-60 sets up a compelling short trade.Well defined MACD triangulation denotes clean breakout points. RSI will give us good lead signals on a break below trend/pattern support.A peak in gold may tie in with a firming USD bias and exhaustive moves in base metals.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening)</li>
<li>Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity</li>
<li>Equities and corporate debt remain vulnerable to effects of past tightenings</li>
<li>Gold, yield spreads and, above all, crypto-currencies look more likely winners</li>
</ul>


US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening)
Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity
Equities and corporate debt remain vulnerable to effects of past tightenings
Gold, yield spreads and, above all, crypto-currencies look more likely winners


A Coming Liquidity Boom: Buy Crypto or Gold …Gold or Crypto?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Macro Bullish Gold

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which...

Thomas Schroeder

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation. They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The...

Greg Gibbs

Watch Out for Dovish Noises from the Fed and RBA

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers. The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an...

Greg Gibbs

Gold Topside Pivot Barrier Short Set Up

Our bullish gold view from 1,200 just kissed the formidable topside resistance near 1,350 with increasing signs of the current up leg...

Thomas Schroeder

A Coming Liquidity Boom: Buy Crypto or Gold …Gold or Crypto?

US Fed is signalling that it is virtually done with QT (quantitative tightening) Risk asset booms rest on more Global Liquidity Equities and...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)