Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Breakout Time in Oil and FX During the last week there occurred many breakout patterns as the volatility in financial markets has risen significantly after president Trump introduced tariffs on Mexico and Canada.</li><li>The Ukraine-drama also doesn’t really help to calm market participants at the moment either.</li><li>We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment. </li></ul>

Breakout Time in Oil and FX During the last week there occurred many breakout patterns as the volatility in financial markets has risen significantly after president Trump introduced tariffs on Mexico and Canada.The Ukraine-drama also doesn’t really help to calm market participants at the moment either.We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment. 

Cocoa Prices Disconnected from Reality? // Breakout Time in Oil and FX

<ul><li>How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.</li><li>From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.</li><li>During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again. </li></ul>

How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again. 

How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week with UK, Europe and Ukraine are not even invited.</li><li>To be fair, this is more about re-establishing US/Russia relations before any progress can be made on Ukraine, but the, now perpetually outraged, EU politicians, still smarting from their telling off by JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week, should perhaps be reflecting on the notion that the US may be taking a more Palmerston-like view to alliances…</li><li>Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England.</li></ul>

The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week with UK, Europe and Ukraine are not even invited.To be fair, this is more about re-establishing US/Russia relations before any progress can be made on Ukraine, but the, now perpetually outraged, EU politicians, still smarting from their telling off by JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week, should perhaps be reflecting on the notion that the US may be taking a more Palmerston-like view to alliances…Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England.

<ul><li>Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal.</li><li>Per soybean crushed, you get something like an 80/20 meal to oil share.</li><li>While the soy oil part is currently in high demand due to a higher bioethanol requirement (Brazil increased the share from 14% to15% as of 2025), there isn’t an additional demand driver for soy meal.</li></ul>

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal.Per soybean crushed, you get something like an 80/20 meal to oil share.While the soy oil part is currently in high demand due to a higher bioethanol requirement (Brazil increased the share from 14% to15% as of 2025), there isn’t an additional demand driver for soy meal.

<ul><li>Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze? During last week, cocoa prices surged again after Hershey’s reportedly asked the US commodity regulator for permission to buy a huge amount (more than currently allowed) of cocoa through the New York exchange in the midst of high prices and an ongoing cocoa deficit in the market.</li><li>Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, citing people familiar with the matter.</li><li>This is an order that equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers. </li></ul>

Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze? During last week, cocoa prices surged again after Hershey’s reportedly asked the US commodity regulator for permission to buy a huge amount (more than currently allowed) of cocoa through the New York exchange in the midst of high prices and an ongoing cocoa deficit in the market.Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, citing people familiar with the matter.This is an order that equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers. 

Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Cocoa Prices Disconnected from Reality? // Breakout Time in Oil and FX

We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment.

The Commodity Report

How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update

How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month. From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost...

The Commodity Report

Eternal and Perpetual

The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week...

Mark Tinker

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming?

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal. Per soybean crushed,...

The Commodity Report

Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze?

Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric...

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)