Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said.</li><li>"Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back ... We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher."</li><li>Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.</li></ul>

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said."Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back ... We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher."Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

<ul><li>According to S&amp;P Global, the renewable output by the grid operator MISO averaged 333,012 GWh in Q4.</li><li>Despite Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) renewable output slipping 12% in Q4, it remained the footprint with the most renewable market share at 75.6% of its total fuel mix for Q4.</li><li>The latest ACP data shows that the total installed solar capacity in the US grew by 17% year on year, reaching 74.126 GW in Q4.</li></ul>

According to S&amp;P Global, the renewable output by the grid operator MISO averaged 333,012 GWh in Q4.Despite Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) renewable output slipping 12% in Q4, it remained the footprint with the most renewable market share at 75.6% of its total fuel mix for Q4.The latest ACP data shows that the total installed solar capacity in the US grew by 17% year on year, reaching 74.126 GW in Q4.

Our Oil Price Analysis // FED is Willing to Break the Market

<ul><li>US Large-Sized Farms Increase - Due to Input Cost Pressure According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country's farmland.</li><li>The farms in this sales class have increased in size, while farms in every other sales class have either remained the same size or decreased.</li><li>According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country's farmland.</li></ul>

US Large-Sized Farms Increase - Due to Input Cost Pressure According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country's farmland.The farms in this sales class have increased in size, while farms in every other sales class have either remained the same size or decreased.According to the Farms and Land in Farms Report by the USDA, the largest farms in the US that had sales of $1 million or more, now operate almost 26% of the country's farmland.

US Large-Sized Farms Increase - Due to Input Cost Pressure // The Fall of The Petrodollar

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Gold retraced almost 50% of its aggressive Q4/Q1 uptrend in the past 4-5 weeks. The correction has bottomed at critical MT support.</li>
<li>The weekly close has the potential to deliver a bullish MT reversal pattern this week and likely set up the next phase of the MT uptrend, targeting 2070/75.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Gold retraced almost 50% of its aggressive Q4/Q1 uptrend in the past 4-5 weeks. The correction has bottomed at critical MT support.
The weekly close has the potential to deliver a bullish MT reversal pattern this week and likely set up the next phase of the MT uptrend, targeting 2070/75.


Gold (XAU) - Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy...

The Commodity Report

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research

Our Oil Price Analysis // FED is Willing to Break the Market

Despite Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) renewable output slipping 12% in Q4, it remained the footprint with the most renewable market share...

The Commodity Report

US Large-Sized Farms Increase - Due to Input Cost Pressure // The Fall of The Petrodollar

The farms in this sales class have increased in size, while farms in every other sales class have either remained the same size or decreased.

The Commodity Report

Gold (XAU) - Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

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