ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A recent webinar hosted by Smartkarma with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources</a> revealed a company confident in the outlook for both its plantation and its value-added processing businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources</a> leads the industry in terms of the yields on its plantations versus both Indonesia and Malaysia and continues to replant with higher-yielding varieties.</li>
<li>The company has plentiful processing capacity for its own needs and those of third parties, which will help maintain margins. Management is confident in the outlook for palm oil prices.</li>
</ul>


A recent webinar hosted by Smartkarma with Golden Agri Resources revealed a company confident in the outlook for both its plantation and its value-added processing businesses.

Golden Agri Resources leads the industry in terms of the yields on its plantations versus both Indonesia and Malaysia and continues to replant with higher-yielding varieties.
The company has plentiful processing capacity for its own needs and those of third parties, which will help maintain margins. Management is confident in the outlook for palm oil prices.


Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) - Replanting and Processing to Drive Future Growth

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) </a>Director, Investor Relations, Richard Fung. In the upcoming Webinar, Richard will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>. A live Q&amp;A session will follow.</p><h3>The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 5 July 2022, 17:00 SGT.</h3><div><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=89650028931" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999, Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (GAR) is one of the leading integrated palm oil plantation companies in the world, with a market capitalisation of US$2.6 billion as of 31 May 2022. During 2021, it generated revenue of over US$10 billion and underlying profit of US$603 million. GAR’s integrated operations focus on the technology-driven production and distribution of an extensive portfolio of palm-based products.</p><p>GAR encompasses an efficient end-to-end supply chain, from responsible production to global delivery. It cultivates 536 thousand hectares of palm oil plantations in Indonesia, including plasma smallholders; harvesting and extracting fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel; processing into a broad range of value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine, shortening, biodiesel, and oleochemicals.</p><p>GAR has a global market presence with destination refining, ex-tank operations, and sales representative offices in several markets. GAR’s products are sold globally to approximately 100 countries. GAR also has complementary businesses such as soybean-based products in China, sunflower-based products in India, and sugar businesses.</p><p>Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.</p><p></p></div>

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) Director, Investor Relations, Richard Fung. In the upcoming Webinar, Richard will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst Angus Mackintosh. A live Q&amp;A session will follow.The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 5 July 2022, 17:00 SGT.Register for the Webinar hereListed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999, Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (GAR) is one of the leading integrated palm oil plantation companies in the world, with a market capitalisation of US$2.6 billion as of 31 May 2022. During 2021, it generated revenue of over US$10 billion and underlying profit of US$603 million. GAR’s integrated operations focus on the technology-driven production and distribution of an extensive portfolio of palm-based products.GAR encompasses an efficient end-to-end supply chain, from responsible production to global delivery. It cultivates 536 thousand hectares of palm oil plantations in Indonesia, including plasma smallholders; harvesting and extracting fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel; processing into a broad range of value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine, shortening, biodiesel, and oleochemicals.GAR has a global market presence with destination refining, ex-tank operations, and sales representative offices in several markets. GAR’s products are sold globally to approximately 100 countries. GAR also has complementary businesses such as soybean-based products in China, sunflower-based products in India, and sugar businesses.Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Golden Agri-Resources: From Seed to Shelf

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Olam Group set to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> as the listed company entity on 16 March. It consists of Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Olam Agri and Olam International (OIL).</li>
<li>The complicated restructuring exercise which was announced in January 2020 is driven by the Board’s intent to unlock long-term shareholder value. </li>
<li>Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34% upside to the last trading price of S$1.76 per share (9 March prior to the suspension of the shares).</li>
</ul>


Olam Group set to replace Olam International (OLAM SP) as the listed company entity on 16 March. It consists of Olam Food Ingredients (ofi), Olam Agri and Olam International (OIL).
The complicated restructuring exercise which was announced in January 2020 is driven by the Board’s intent to unlock long-term shareholder value. 
Our SoTP valuation is S$2.36 per share, which is a 34% upside to the last trading price of S$1.76 per share (9 March prior to the suspension of the shares).


Olam Group: Restructuring to Unlock Value

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

<p>Crude Palm Oil (CPO) plantation stocks have lagged the rally in CPO prices, as well as other commodity stocks.  Investors have been generally cautious of chasing the CPO rally via plantation stocks even as CPO prices breach new record highs. </p><p>Market concerns derive from the probability that CPO prices may be in bubble territory and could reverse when supply-side disruptions rebalance. Further, high CPO prices and increased availability of substitute edible oils (such as soybean and sunflower oil) as the latter enters production season could weigh on CPO demand, which has otherwise remained resilient due to strong demand in key markets such as India and China.  </p><p>The Bursa Malaysia plantation index, which tracks the performance of 43 listed planters on Bursa Malaysia, has lost 6.3% year to date, while CPO benchmark prices surged more than 46% over the same period.  Malaysian plantation stocks trade at 18 times price to earnings while regional ones trade at around 11 times price to earnings, which approximates historical lows.</p><p>On a brighter note, Indonesia recently announced the downward revision in palm oil export levies, which encourages exports and should be viewed positively by investors. Could this be the catalyst that the overlooked palm plantation sector needs? </p><p>In this Insight, we examine the following key factors: </p><ul>
<li>CPO sector overview</li>
<li>supply and demand equation </li>
<li>Investment Catalyst - Indonesia's Export Levies  </li>
<li>historical and current correlation between share price and CPO benchmark price  </li>
<li>comparables and valuation</li>
</ul><p>We conclude the article with recommendations for investment opportunities in the sector.</p>

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) plantation stocks have lagged the rally in CPO prices, as well as other commodity stocks.  Investors have been generally cautious of chasing the CPO rally via plantation stocks even as CPO prices breach new record highs. Market concerns derive from the probability that CPO prices may be in bubble territory and could reverse when supply-side disruptions rebalance. Further, high CPO prices and increased availability of substitute edible oils (such as soybean and sunflower oil) as the latter enters production season could weigh on CPO demand, which has otherwise remained resilient due to strong demand in key markets such as India and China.  The Bursa Malaysia plantation index, which tracks the performance of 43 listed planters on Bursa Malaysia, has lost 6.3% year to date, while CPO benchmark prices surged more than 46% over the same period.  Malaysian plantation stocks trade at 18 times price to earnings while regional ones trade at around 11 times price to earnings, which approximates historical lows.On a brighter note, Indonesia recently announced the downward revision in palm oil export levies, which encourages exports and should be viewed positively by investors. Could this be the catalyst that the overlooked palm plantation sector needs? In this Insight, we examine the following key factors: 
CPO sector overview
supply and demand equation 
Investment Catalyst - Indonesia's Export Levies  
historical and current correlation between share price and CPO benchmark price  
comparables and valuation
We conclude the article with recommendations for investment opportunities in the sector.

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) - Which Plantation Stock Could Crush Its Competition?

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-kepong-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17039:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK)</a> made an offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>/IJMC’s entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-plantations-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12967:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK)</a>/IJMP for RM3.10 per share in cash, subject to potential dividend adjustments. The offer price is a 26% premium to the unaffected price of RM2.46 per share (prior to the trading halt on 8 June).</p><p>IJMC is IJMP’s largest shareholder and owns 494.9 million shares, representing 56.2% of outstanding shares. The proposed acquisition implies a cost of RM1.53 billion ($371.7 million). KLK’s offer is subject to IJMC’s acceptance and execution of the definitive agreement (SPA) on or before 5.00 p.m. on 11 June 2021 or such a mutually extended date, failing which the offer will lapse. IJMC has stated that is agreeable to finalise the terms with KLK to meet the offer deadline. </p><p>IJMP is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. If the SPA becomes unconditional, KLK will be required to extend a mandatory general offer to acquire all the remaining IJMP shares for a cash offer price of RM3.10 per share, subject to potential dividend adjustments.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A key condition precedent for the SPA is approval by both IJMC and KLK shareholders at their respective EGMs. We think that the deal should gain EGM approval as it is attractive to both IJMC and KLK shareholders. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (SPA becoming unconditional).  </p></div>

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) made an offer to acquire Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)/IJMC’s entire stake in Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK)/IJMP for RM3.10 per share in cash, subject to potential dividend adjustments. The offer price is a 26% premium to the unaffected price of RM2.46 per share (prior to the trading halt on 8 June).IJMC is IJMP’s largest shareholder and owns 494.9 million shares, representing 56.2% of outstanding shares. The proposed acquisition implies a cost of RM1.53 billion ($371.7 million). KLK’s offer is subject to IJMC’s acceptance and execution of the definitive agreement (SPA) on or before 5.00 p.m. on 11 June 2021 or such a mutually extended date, failing which the offer will lapse. IJMC has stated that is agreeable to finalise the terms with KLK to meet the offer deadline. IJMP is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. If the SPA becomes unconditional, KLK will be required to extend a mandatory general offer to acquire all the remaining IJMP shares for a cash offer price of RM3.10 per share, subject to potential dividend adjustments.  A key condition precedent for the SPA is approval by both IJMC and KLK shareholders at their respective EGMs. We think that the deal should gain EGM approval as it is attractive to both IJMC and KLK shareholders. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (SPA becoming unconditional).  

IJM Plantations’ Potential MGO from Kuala Lumpur Kepong

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel.  The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

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Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)