Charles Spencer

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Alpha Factors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>INVESTMENT CONCLUSION: </strong>We recommend avoiding shares linked to the Indonesian plantation sector, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> until the risks associated with a recent spike in transboundary haze passes.  Over the past few days, there has been a sharp deterioration in air pollution throughout Southeast Asia as a result of an escalation of fire clearing activities across Sumatra and Kalimantan.  </p>

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>A recent webinar hosted by Smartkarma with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources</a> revealed a company confident in the outlook for both its plantation and its value-added processing businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources</a> leads the industry in terms of the yields on its plantations versus both Indonesia and Malaysia and continues to replant with higher-yielding varieties.</li>
<li>The company has plentiful processing capacity for its own needs and those of third parties, which will help maintain margins. Management is confident in the outlook for palm oil prices.</li>
</ul>

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) </a>Director, Investor Relations, Richard Fung. In the upcoming Webinar, Richard will share a short company presentation, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>. A live Q&amp;A session will follow.</p><h3>The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 5 July 2022, 17:00 SGT.</h3><div><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=89650028931" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999, Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (GAR) is one of the leading integrated palm oil plantation companies in the world, with a market capitalisation of US$2.6 billion as of 31 May 2022. During 2021, it generated revenue of over US$10 billion and underlying profit of US$603 million. GAR’s integrated operations focus on the technology-driven production and distribution of an extensive portfolio of palm-based products.</p><p>GAR encompasses an efficient end-to-end supply chain, from responsible production to global delivery. It cultivates 536 thousand hectares of palm oil plantations in Indonesia, including plasma smallholders; harvesting and extracting fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel; processing into a broad range of value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine, shortening, biodiesel, and oleochemicals.</p><p>GAR has a global market presence with destination refining, ex-tank operations, and sales representative offices in several markets. GAR’s products are sold globally to approximately 100 countries. GAR also has complementary businesses such as soybean-based products in China, sunflower-based products in India, and sugar businesses.</p><p>Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.</p><p></p></div>

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Global Equity Research Ltd

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>On 10 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> announced the potential IPO of Olam Agri through a dual primary listing in SGX ST and Saudi Arabia as early as 1H2023. </li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO could raise US$1 billion, according to press reports. Olam will seek shareholder approval at an EGM for the transaction.</li>
<li>The IPO marks the final stages of the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.85 per share, a 19% upside to the last close price of S$1.56.</li>
</ul>

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel.  The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

ADTV (USDm)	0.00
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
P/B	0.00
EV/EBITDA	0.00
EV/Sales	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)

Golden Agri & Wilmar – Avoid till the Smoke Clears

INVESTMENT CONCLUSION: We recommend avoiding shares linked to the Indonesian plantation sector, like Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) and Wilmar...

Charles Spencer