Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a> fails the liquidity test and could be sold by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-straits-times-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35880:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMP PM)</a> will also be sold by global index trackers in March and the stock should remain under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> is ranked ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ascott-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6560:1" rel="noopener">CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS SP)</a> by 9% on full market cap and should be added to the ETF in March.</li>
</ul>



Emperador (EMI SP) fails the liquidity test and could be sold by the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) in March.

Emperador (EMP PM) will also be sold by global index trackers in March and the stock should remain under pressure for the next few weeks.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) is ranked ahead of CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS SP) by 9% on full market cap and should be added to the ETF in March.


STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a> currently fails the liquidity test and could be removed from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-straits-times-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35880:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and could be added to the ETF. FCT has a 6% higher market cap compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam (OLG SP)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate trackers will need to buy 5 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> and sell over 37 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Emperador (EMI SP) currently fails the liquidity test and could be removed from the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) in March.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and could be added to the ETF. FCT has a 6% higher market cap compared to Olam (OLG SP).
We estimate trackers will need to buy 5 days of ADV in Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) and sell over 37 days of ADV in Emperador (EMI SP). 


STTF Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in March

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.</li>
<li>Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.</li>
<li>Potential passive buying could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> outperforming peers in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.


Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) is a leading seed-to-shelf agribusiness primarily engaged in the palm oil industry. The company cultivates oil palms, extracts crude palm oil, and processes it into various value-added products including cooking oil, margarine, shortening, biodiesel, and oleochemicals. GAR also has complementary businesses in soybean-based products, sunflower-based products, and sugar distribution. Headquartered in Singapore, the company was founded in 1996.

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Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP)

STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

Emperador could be deleted from the STTF at the March rebalance and replaced with Frasers Centrepoint Trust. Emperador (EMP PM) will also be...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STTF Rebalance Preview: One Potential Change in March

Emperador currently fails liquidity and could be deleted from the STTF in March. Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) is a potential inclusion. There is...

Brian Freitas