IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.</li>
<li>Unlike the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.</li>
<li>Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.</li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.
Unlike the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.
Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

<ul>
<li>The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. </li>
<li>Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.</li>
<li>The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.</li>
</ul>


The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

OneConnect Financial Technology / Event-Driven

OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)

<ul>
<li>Back on 3rd March, dual-listed <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OFT US)</a></strong>, a digital retail banking/commercial banking/digital insurance play, announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect's controlling shareholder with 32.12%.</li>
<li>By way of a Scheme, Ping An offered HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. <strong>The price was final. </strong>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0515/2025051501347.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAMR has now signed off on the deal and terms are now firmed</a>. M&amp;G is supportive (1.98% of shares out,  ~8% of disinterested shares). Perhaps mid-September completion. </li>
</ul>


Back on 3rd March, dual-listed OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/digital insurance play, announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect's controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
By way of a Scheme, Ping An offered HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price was final. 


SAMR has now signed off on the deal and terms are now firmed. M&amp;G is supportive (1.98% of shares out,  ~8% of disinterested shares). Perhaps mid-September completion. 


OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An Firms Offer @ HK$2.068/Share

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.</li>
<li>Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.</li>
<li>We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.</li>
</ul>


The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.</li>
</ul>



Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

Hong Kong

Goldlion is primarily engaged in the production, operation, and sales of men's clothing and apparel, including formal wear, business casual, leather goods, and shoes. The company also has interests in property investment and development, and more recently, the photovoltaic business. It was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Goldlion (533 HK)

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons and suggests that HK merger arb is increasingly fraught with risk. My estimated deal-break...

Arun George

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high...

Arun George

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Privatization failed due to inability to balance the interests of shareholders, who see potential for value reassessment. If privatization is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons and suggests that HK merger arb is increasingly fraught with risk. My estimated deal-break...

Arun George

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high...

Arun George

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An Firms Offer @ HK$2.068/Share

Terms are light.But no competing offer will emerge. If illiquid Hong Kong arbs are your bag, get involved, and pay up to ~HK$1.90/share. After the...

David Blennerhassett

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Privatization failed due to inability to balance the interests of shareholders, who see potential for value reassessment. If privatization is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below...

Arun George