Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a>, an apparel manufacturer/distributor, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, the obvious Offeror, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (<a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm3A.aspx?fn=DA20231227E00309&amp;sa2=as&amp;sid=1075&amp;corpn=Goldlion+Holdings+Ltd.&amp;sd=18%2f12%2f2008&amp;ed=18%2f12%2f2024&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=18%2f12%2f2008&amp;sced=18%2f12%2f2024&amp;sc=533&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;g_lang=en&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">63.09%</a> stakeholder).  </li>
<li>And that it's exactly what unfolded.  The Cancellation Price is $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a punchy 71% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>The long stop is the 30th September 2025. This will probably be completed in less than half the time. There will be a question mark over the low price-to-book multiple. </li>
</ul>


After Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, the obvious Offeror, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (63.09% stakeholder).  
And that it's exactly what unfolded.  The Cancellation Price is $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a punchy 71% premium to undisturbed. 
The long stop is the 30th September 2025. This will probably be completed in less than half the time. There will be a question mark over the low price-to-book multiple. 


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Tsang Family's Scheme

<ul>
<li>Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>'s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.</li>
<li>This is the same register discussed in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/188795/Giordano%20(709%20HK):%20A%20Closer%20Look%20At%20The%20Shareholder%20Register%20Ahead%20Of%20The%20SGM.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/jafza" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/188795/L'Occitane%20(973%20HK):%20Who%20Owns%20What,%20And%20When.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/Zg7gC" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> L'Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When</a>
</li>
<li>It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register. </li>
</ul>


Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to ESR (1821 HK)'s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
This is the same register discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM and L'Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When

It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register. 


ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.</li>
<li>Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.</li>
<li>We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.</li>
</ul>


The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.</li>
</ul>



Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

<ul>
<li>On the 17th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a>, an apparel manufacturer/distributor, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1217/2024121700780.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (2.95% stakeholder), for shares not held. </li>
<li>The Tangs are offerings $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a 71% premium to undisturbed. Despite the very low price-to-book multiple, this transaction looks done.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0410/2025041000911.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, with payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Altus Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 17th December 2024, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (2.95% stakeholder), for shares not held. 
The Tangs are offerings $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a 71% premium to undisturbed. Despite the very low price-to-book multiple, this transaction looks done.

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, with payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Altus Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family's Offer

Hong Kong

Goldlion Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes and manufactures garments and accessories.  The Company also invests in properties and operates a commercial center with restaurants and a business center.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)