Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk</li>
<li>Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments</li>
<li>Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall</li>
</ul>


The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk
Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments
Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall


US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

<ul>
<li>There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20</li>
<li>JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US</li>
<li>Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs</li>
</ul>


There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs


JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December</li>
<li>Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November</li>
<li>Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December
Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November
Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income


US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-ozk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28708:1" rel="noopener">Bank OZK (OZK US)</a> has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24</li>
<li>Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times</li>
<li>The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?</li>
</ul>



Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?


Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Fires in Los Angeles can result in impairments, loan restructurings, other second order effects for banks (and insurance companies), like credit...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Weekly HFD data for large US banks is highly positive: loans accelerating, not CRE loans, with less growth in high cost jumbo deposits, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are risky in the US normally and especially now. Bank OZK is most exposed, with dramatic worsening of credit...

Daniel Tabbush

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