Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs: Coalition Management Key for BJP as Economic Stability Persists</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zee-entertainment-enterprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19466:1" rel="noopener">Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)</a> to Raise Rs. 2,000 Crore Following Sony Deal Fallout, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spicejet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5266:1" rel="noopener">Spicejet Ltd (SJET IN)</a> is also planning to raise funds in coming months</li>
<li>RBI Approves <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>’s 70% Stake Sale in Insurance Arm to Zurich Insurance</li>
</ul>


Goldman Sachs: Coalition Management Key for BJP as Economic Stability Persists

Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN) to Raise Rs. 2,000 Crore Following Sony Deal Fallout, Spicejet Ltd (SJET IN) is also planning to raise funds in coming months
RBI Approves Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)’s 70% Stake Sale in Insurance Arm to Zurich Insurance


#9 India Insight: Goldman Sachs on India Election, Zee& SpiceJet Fundraise, ITC Demerger

<ul>
<li>Terms of credit on US credit card loans have surged to levels well higher than any period on record, since 1972 suggesting far worse delinquencies, risk aversion by lenders. </li>
<li>There are important implications for the 2nd and 3rd order effects on consumption in the US economy, as well as obvious 1st order implications for banks, card issuers. </li>
<li>In September 2022 delinquent card loans rates bottomed at 7.6% and this delinquency rate is now at 9.7% in December 2023. </li>
</ul>


Terms of credit on US credit card loans have surged to levels well higher than any period on record, since 1972 suggesting far worse delinquencies, risk aversion by lenders. 
There are important implications for the 2nd and 3rd order effects on consumption in the US economy, as well as obvious 1st order implications for banks, card issuers. 
In September 2022 delinquent card loans rates bottomed at 7.6% and this delinquency rate is now at 9.7% in December 2023. 


US Banks - No Period on Record Since 1972 Shows Terms on Credit Card Loans so Poor

<ul>
<li>Weekly high frequency data on US banks shows a major slow down continuing in residential mortgage loan growth</li>
<li>Mortgage loan applications index shows some of the worst figures in years in the latest weekly data</li>
<li>Core net interest income and credit costs can surprise even from an area that is traditionally not risky compared with CRE and C&amp;I loans</li>
</ul>


Weekly high frequency data on US banks shows a major slow down continuing in residential mortgage loan growth
Mortgage loan applications index shows some of the worst figures in years in the latest weekly data
Core net interest income and credit costs can surprise even from an area that is traditionally not risky compared with CRE and C&amp;I loans


US Banks - Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap</li>
<li>4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.</li>
</ul>


While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500
Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

#9 India Insight: Goldman Sachs on India Election, Zee& SpiceJet Fundraise, ITC Demerger

Goldman Sachs highlights importance of coalition management for BJP amid economic stability; Zee and Spicejet to raise funds, RBI approves Kotak...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - No Period on Record Since 1972 Shows Terms on Credit Card Loans so Poor

Terms of credit on card loans in the US are worse than any time since the series begins in 1972. This is not simply a following of Fed Funds rates,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal

Residential mortgage loan data is dismal and worsening for US banks, which we see in weekly data of loan growth and in the Mortgage Bankers Loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

#9 India Insight: Goldman Sachs on India Election, Zee& SpiceJet Fundraise, ITC Demerger

​Goldman Sachs highlights importance of coalition management for BJP amid economic stability; Zee and Spicejet to raise funds, RBI approves Kotak...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - No Period on Record Since 1972 Shows Terms on Credit Card Loans so Poor

Terms of credit on card loans in the US are worse than any time since the series begins in 1972. This is not simply a following of Fed Funds rates,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal

Residential mortgage loan data is dismal and worsening for US banks, which we see in weekly data of loan growth and in the Mortgage Bankers Loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

Goldman Sachs highlights importance of coalition management for BJP amid economic stability; Zee and Spicejet to raise funds, RBI approves Kotak...