IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has announced that Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. 
Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. 


Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Growth Inflection: Goldwin's mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face's expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.</li>
<li>Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.</li>
<li>Strong Capital Position: Goldwin's robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.</li>
</ul>


Growth Inflection: Goldwin's mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face's expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.
Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.
Strong Capital Position: Goldwin's robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

<ul>
<li>Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s</a> Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.</li>
<li>While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.</li>
<li>The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.</li>
</ul>


Through all the upheavals in discretionary product distribution in the last decade, Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s Itochu Textile subsidiary has managed to maintain huge power in the channel.
While the trading firm has traditionally focused on premium fashion brands, in the last few years it has invested heavily in the sports market, including its growing investment in Descente.
The move is part of wider plans to take lead share in sports, footwear and department store brands.


Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light. 


Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

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Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

While light the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium...

Arun George

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

This is background on why Itochu's just announced tender for the remaining shares in Descente is part of a wider brief to become a powerhouse in...

Michael Causton

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. There is a reasonable chance the shares will trade above...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

While light the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium...

Arun George

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

​Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Descente a Key Part of Itochu's Plans in Sports

This is background on why Itochu's just announced tender for the remaining shares in Descente is part of a wider brief to become a powerhouse in...

Michael Causton

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. There is a reasonable chance the shares will trade above...

Arun George

Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...