Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<p>The Japanese sports retail market has traditionally been dominated by four big retailers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alpen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17762:1" rel="noopener">Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xebio-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13955:1" rel="noopener">Xebio Holdings (8281 JP)</a>, Mega Sports (owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP))</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/himaraya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5307:1" rel="noopener">Himaraya Co Ltd (7514 JP)</a>. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s</a> financial and supply chain support, Himaraya overtook Mega Sports a few years ago but Himaraya’s sales have since contracted and Mitsubishi gradually reduced its stake while still retaining its core supply role.</p><p>Mitsubishi will now divest all shares and end its supply relationship too, leaving Himaraya open to takeover.</p><p>Given that sports/outdoor is one of the few sure growth markets, Himaraya won’t lack for potential suitors.</p><p>This is a time of transition for the big multi-brand sports retailers. The number of stores increased up to 2018 but last year the total number of stores began to contract for the first time since 1990 with new competitors emerging, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> and Decathlon.</p>

The Japanese sports retail market has traditionally been dominated by four big retailers, Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP), Xebio Holdings (8281 JP), Mega Sports (owned by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)) and Himaraya Co Ltd (7514 JP). With Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s financial and supply chain support, Himaraya overtook Mega Sports a few years ago but Himaraya’s sales have since contracted and Mitsubishi gradually reduced its stake while still retaining its core supply role.Mitsubishi will now divest all shares and end its supply relationship too, leaving Himaraya open to takeover.Given that sports/outdoor is one of the few sure growth markets, Himaraya won’t lack for potential suitors.This is a time of transition for the big multi-brand sports retailers. The number of stores increased up to 2018 but last year the total number of stores began to contract for the first time since 1990 with new competitors emerging, including Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Decathlon.

Japan Sports Retail in Flux as Mitsubishi Ditches Himaraya

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this edition of the Smartkarma North Asia Weekly, it summarizes some of the top insights on Smartkarma in the past week covering Japan, HK/China, and the Korean stock markets. The top topics are below:</p><p><strong>1) Alibaba: Antitrust Concerns</strong></p><p><strong>2) Tencent Under Pressure From Antitrust Push</strong></p><p><strong>3) POTUS Executive Order: New OFAC Clarification </strong></p><p><strong>4) China Logistics: Major Shareholders Seek to Exit </strong></p><p><strong>5) Kuaishou Technology IPO</strong></p><p><strong>6) Yidu Tech IPO</strong></p><p><strong>7) TOPIX Inclusion: ODK Solutions </strong></p><p><strong>8) New Horizon IPO</strong></p><p><strong>9) Goldwin Bullish for Future Growth</strong></p><p><strong>10) Yaoko: A Difficult 2021 Coming</strong></p><p><strong>11) IQIYI Valuation</strong></p><p><strong>12) Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/​Diem?</strong></p><p><strong>13) China Dental Care Industry</strong></p><p><strong>14) ZTO Express &amp;</strong> <strong>BEST Inc</strong></p><p><strong>15) Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities: New Asset Class for Asia</strong></p><p><strong>16) Japan Airport Terminal</strong></p><p><strong>17) Will Biden Get Officially Inaugurated on 20 January? </strong></p>

In this edition of the Smartkarma North Asia Weekly, it summarizes some of the top insights on Smartkarma in the past week covering Japan, HK/China, and the Korean stock markets. The top topics are below:1) Alibaba: Antitrust Concerns2) Tencent Under Pressure From Antitrust Push3) POTUS Executive Order: New OFAC Clarification 4) China Logistics: Major Shareholders Seek to Exit 5) Kuaishou Technology IPO6) Yidu Tech IPO7) TOPIX Inclusion: ODK Solutions 8) New Horizon IPO9) Goldwin Bullish for Future Growth10) Yaoko: A Difficult 2021 Coming11) IQIYI Valuation12) Digital Currency: Still Remember Facebook Libra/​Diem?13) China Dental Care Industry14) ZTO Express &amp; BEST Inc15) Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities: New Asset Class for Asia16) Japan Airport Terminal17) Will Biden Get Officially Inaugurated on 20 January? 

Smartkarma North Asia Weekly: Alibaba Antitrust, OFAC Clarification, China Logistics, & Kuaishou IPO

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Sportswear businesses have had a somewhat easier time of it than mainstream apparel firms in the last six months but it has still been tough. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)</a> continues to make money and hopes growing appreciation for the outdoors will lead to a quick revival – as well as growth for its own brand.</p>

Sportswear businesses have had a somewhat easier time of it than mainstream apparel firms in the last six months but it has still been tough. Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) continues to make money and hopes growing appreciation for the outdoors will lead to a quick revival – as well as growth for its own brand.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/948/original/2020-11-08_12-52-02.png?1604807697" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169948"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>AUTOS ▲</strong> - Positive results and full-year upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP)</a> have confirmed that Japan's overall revenue and earnings momentum has bottomed and is now in an uptrend.  Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> has yet to report, the auto assembler Peer Group's Forecast/Revision Score is at a five-year high following its largest-ever single-quarter increase. </p></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/950/original/2020-11-08_13-11-05.png?1604808678" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169950"></figure></section><p><strong>MARKET ▲</strong> - Since bottoming in mid-September, the  Results Score has gained 147 basis points, and the Forecast/Revision Score has rallied 509 bps. Total Market Value ex REITs has rallied to a new post-COVID high of ¥661 trillion but remains 12.6% below the 2017 peak. In TOPIX terms, the 'gap to peak' is 15.3%.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/951/original/2020-11-08_14-37-14.png?1604813847" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169951"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTORS</strong> -  The <strong>Auto</strong> Sector joins the <strong>Machinery</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipment</strong> Sectors as the top-three gainers. Only six Sectors have seen a decline in Score, led by <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Information Technology</strong> and<strong> Non-Bank Finance</strong>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/952/original/2020-11-08_14-45-33.png?1604814353" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169952"></figure></section><p><strong>MULTIPLES</strong> - The uptick in forecast all0market Net Income has capped the market's forward multiple at 34 times and reduced the 'gap' to trailing earnings to ¥1.3 trillion.  </p>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div>
<div><p>Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Friday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a> </p></div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/953/original/2020-11-08_14-54-54.png?1604814911" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169953"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/954/original/2020-11-08_15-05-04.png?1604815536" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169954"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div><p>Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6 points lower. 50% of annual revisions are negative, but the average change in score has improved to a decline of 1.4 points.</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>377 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 8% Neutral / 51% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.1% Quarter YoY / -3.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.6ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 21%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>167 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 40% Positive / 10% Neutral / 50% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 68% Positive / 9% Neutral / 23% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.4 points</p></li>
</ul></div></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsAUTOS ▲ - Positive results and full-year upward revisions from Toyota (7203 JP) and Honda (7267 JP) have confirmed that Japan's overall revenue and earnings momentum has bottomed and is now in an uptrend.  Although Nissan (7201 JP) has yet to report, the auto assembler Peer Group's Forecast/Revision Score is at a five-year high following its largest-ever single-quarter increase. MARKET ▲ - Since bottoming in mid-September, the  Results Score has gained 147 basis points, and the Forecast/Revision Score has rallied 509 bps. Total Market Value ex REITs has rallied to a new post-COVID high of ¥661 trillion but remains 12.6% below the 2017 peak. In TOPIX terms, the 'gap to peak' is 15.3%.
SECTORS -  The Auto Sector joins the Machinery, Electrical Equipment Sectors as the top-three gainers. Only six Sectors have seen a decline in Score, led by Other Commercial Products, Information Technology and Non-Bank Finance.
MULTIPLES - The uptick in forecast all0market Net Income has capped the market's forward multiple at 34 times and reduced the 'gap' to trailing earnings to ¥1.3 trillion.  
• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Friday's announcements is Honda (7267 JP) and Square Enix (9684 JP) 


DAILY STATS

Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6 points lower. 50% of annual revisions are negative, but the average change in score has improved to a decline of 1.4 points.

377 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 41% Positive / 8% Neutral / 51% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.1% Quarter YoY / -3.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.6ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 21%


167 Annual • 22 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 40% Positive / 10% Neutral / 50% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 68% Positive / 9% Neutral / 23% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.4 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/06 - Autos Lead the Way

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.</p>

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

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Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)

Japan Sports Retail in Flux as Mitsubishi Ditches Himaraya

Mitsubishi will divest its long-standing holding in sports retailer, Himaraya. With the sports retail market in flux, Himaraya is a likely target...

Michael Causton

Smartkarma North Asia Weekly: Alibaba Antitrust, OFAC Clarification, China Logistics, & Kuaishou IPO

In this edition of the Smartkarma North Asia Weekly, it summarizes some of the top insights on Smartkarma in the past week covering Japan, HK...

Douglas Kim

Goldwin Bullish for Future Growth

Japanese sports brands remain under-valued in their home market. Goldwin has transformed its business through a license for The North Face but now...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/06 - Autos Lead the Way

Results are evenly split between positive and neutral; however, TTM revenues are still falling by 3%, and operating margins are on average 1.6...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

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