Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain extends the TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. This still needs a bump.</li>
<li>I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>: arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.</li>
</ul>


Bain extends the TOB for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). This still needs a bump.
I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.
Re: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. </li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". </li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-enterprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:700:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor (AMC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. 
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". 
Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU), Amcor (AMC AU), and Boss Energy (BOE AU).  


Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers, First Pac, Toshiba, Nissan, Entertainment One, Huaneng Renew

This week in StubWorld ...
<ul>
<li>Apart from a brief period of investor enthusiasm and a narrowing of the NAV discount in 2013 after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> actively invested in operations at the parent level, the last five years have exhibited a downward (widening) drift in the NAV discount, with little to no respite when exiting stub assets. </li>
</ul>
Preceding my comments on First Pac are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
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These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.
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This week in StubWorld ...

Apart from a brief period of investor enthusiasm and a narrowing of the NAV discount in 2013 after First Pacific Co (142 HK) actively invested in operations at the parent level, the last five years have exhibited a downward (widening) drift in the NAV discount, with little to no respite when exiting stub assets. 

Preceding my comments on First Pac are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.

These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: First Pacific's Discount Back To Passive Levels

Australia

Goodman Fielder Limited  offers a wide range of food products. The Company offers food products that include packaged baked goods, spreads, dairy products, small goods, sauces, dressings, and condiments and bulk and packaged edible fats and oils and flour products.

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Goodman Fielder (GFF AU)

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light & Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers, First Pac, Toshiba, Nissan, Entertainment One, Huaneng Renew

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Naspers (NPN SJ) appears to have baked in most of the upside from the Prosus (PRX NA) spin-off. Near-term there...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: First Pacific's Discount Back To Passive Levels

This week in StubWorld ... Apart from a brief period of investor enthusiasm and a narrowing of the NAV discount in 2013 after First Pacific Co...

David Blennerhassett

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