Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.</li>
<li>There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>



Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.</li>
<li>REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields may be approaching their peak.</li>
<li>The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. </li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.
REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields may be approaching their peak.
The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. 


Australia REITs:  Asset Deflation Bear Market

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.</li>
<li>Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.</li>
</ul>


Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.
Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.
Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.


Australia:  Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Event-Driven

China Logistics Property Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0203/2022020300037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Composite Document</a> has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.</li>
<li>The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.</li>
<li>Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)'s Composite Document has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.
The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.
Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. 


CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

<ul>
<li>China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority approval, the key SPA condition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> transaction, has now been satisfied.  </li>
<li>A number of conditions to the SPA remain outstanding, almost all of which can be waived by the Offeror (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>Trading tight to terms with possible payment in early February.</li>
</ul>


China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority approval, the key SPA condition to the China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) transaction, has now been satisfied.  
A number of conditions to the SPA remain outstanding, almost all of which can be waived by the Offeror (JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)).
Trading tight to terms with possible payment in early February.


CLPH (1589 HK): MGO Imminent As Anti-Monopoly Approval Satisfied

Australia

Goodman Group is an integrated industrial property group. The Group has operations in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Asia and Europe. Goodman's activities include property investment, funds management, property development and property services. The Group's property portfolio includes business parks, industrial estates, office parks and warehouse/distribution centers.

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Goodman Group (GMG AU)

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index. Passive trackers need to sell 13.9m shares (5.1x ADV) of CMW but short...

Brian Freitas

Australia REITs: Asset Deflation Bear Market

The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the overall REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year...

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.

Steven Holden

CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

This transaction is done. Trading 1% through terms, as it has done so since late last month. Should the share price dip below the MGO price, get...

David Blennerhassett

CLPH (1589 HK): MGO Imminent As Anti-Monopoly Approval Satisfied

Trading super tight at 0.2%/2.4% gross/annualised spread (at HK$4.34/share), assuming early February completion. You have a hard put at HK$4.35...

David Blennerhassett

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