New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.</li><li>The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.</li><li>We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.</li></ul>

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q26 update; trail of breadcrumbs on commencementsGMG provided a 1Q26 update reiterating FY26 operating EPS for +9% growth y/y (BPe +10%, VA consensus +10%).</li><li>Key takeouts included:(1) WIP down q/q but targeting &gt;$17.5b by end FY26 – Development WIP declined -4% q/q to $12.4bn vs.</li><li>$12.9bn FY25 and $12.8bn pcp, but GMG is targeting &gt;$17.5b WIP across Data Centres (“DCs”) and Industrial by FY26.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

1Q26 update; trail of breadcrumbs on commencementsGMG provided a 1Q26 update reiterating FY26 operating EPS for +9% growth y/y (BPe +10%, VA consensus +10%).Key takeouts included:(1) WIP down q/q but targeting &gt;$17.5b by end FY26 – Development WIP declined -4% q/q to $12.4bn vs.$12.9bn FY25 and $12.8bn pcp, but GMG is targeting &gt;$17.5b WIP across Data Centres (“DCs”) and Industrial by FY26.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Goodman Group (GMG): $17.5b+ Would Be Good

<ul><li>The listed property sector had a small bounce back in May, gaining +2.5% through the month.</li><li>Portfolios remained largely robust, but vacancy lifted in industrial.</li><li>Despite recent volatility, we continue to view property as attractive given its predictable earnings and undemanding valuation metrics.</li></ul>

The listed property sector had a small bounce back in May, gaining +2.5% through the month.Portfolios remained largely robust, but vacancy lifted in industrial.Despite recent volatility, we continue to view property as attractive given its predictable earnings and undemanding valuation metrics.

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.</li><li>Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.</li><li>We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.</li></ul>

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

Australia

Goodman Group is an integrated industrial property group. The Group has operations in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Asia and Europe. Goodman's activities include property investment, funds management, property development and property services. The Group's property portfolio includes business parks, industrial estates, office parks and warehouse/distribution centers.

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Goodman Group (GMG AU)

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September. The sector is well hedged in the short term,...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Group (GMG): $17.5b+ Would Be Good

1Q26 update; trail of breadcrumbs on commencementsGMG provided a 1Q26 update reiterating FY26 operating EPS for +9% growth y/y (BPe +10%, VA...

Bell Potter

Real Estate Reflections Turning The Tide

The listed property sector had a small bounce back in May, gaining +2.5% through the month. Portfolios remained largely robust, but vacancy lifted...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.

Forsyth Barr

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