IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to an <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/secret-suitor-roc-slams-pacific-current-group-s-silence-on-hidden-bid-20260906-p60uuc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a> belatedly disclosed that it rejected a non-binding proposal from Roc Partners in May 2026. </li>
<li>PAC is currently undergoing a strategic review to consider River Capital’s proposal alongside a sale or delisting/liquidation of holdings.</li>
<li>Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV of 0.27x at last close).</li>
</ul>


In response to an AFR article, Pacific Current (PAC AU) belatedly disclosed that it rejected a non-binding proposal from Roc Partners in May 2026. 
PAC is currently undergoing a strategic review to consider River Capital’s proposal alongside a sale or delisting/liquidation of holdings.
Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV of 0.27x at last close).


Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in 2023, asset manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a> fielded Offers from Regal and GQG, neither of which gained traction: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gqg-mulls-offer-as-pacific-current-balks-at-regal-s-nbio" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108934" rel="noopener">GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal's NBIO</a> 
</li>
<li>River Capital, which initially teamed up with Regal, steadily mopped up shares, and currently holds ~43%. Late-August, River and PAC announced a backdoor merger via new shares at A$13/share. </li>
<li>ROC Capital pitched an Offer for PAC back in May. Apparently River sat in on negotiations. Roc reckons River used those discussions to its advantage. PAC sees it otherwise.</li>
</ul>


Back in 2023, asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU) fielded Offers from Regal and GQG, neither of which gained traction: GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal's NBIO 

River Capital, which initially teamed up with Regal, steadily mopped up shares, and currently holds ~43%. Late-August, River and PAC announced a backdoor merger via new shares at A$13/share. 
ROC Capital pitched an Offer for PAC back in May. Apparently River sat in on negotiations. Roc reckons River used those discussions to its advantage. PAC sees it otherwise.


Pacific Current (PAC AU)'s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. </li>
<li>The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. 
The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. 
While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. 


Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

United States

GQG Partners Inc. operates as an independent asset management firm. The Company offers investment advisory, portfolio management, financial planning, and security trading services. GQG Partners serves customers worldwide.

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GQG Partners (GQG AU)

Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor

Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV...

Arun George

Pacific Current (PAC AU)'s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital

If illiquid eventy stocks are your thing, I'd be getting some exposure in PAC here. But not aggressively. A full offer cannot be ruled out. PAC's...

David Blennerhassett

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor

Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV...

Arun George

Pacific Current (PAC AU)'s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital

If illiquid eventy stocks are your thing, I'd be getting some exposure in PAC here. But not aggressively. A full offer cannot be ruled out. PAC's...

David Blennerhassett

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact