Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The government of Colombia seeks to accelerate the country’s path toward net zero emissions, while investors question the implications for the country’s oil &amp; gas industry.</li><li>This report is the third in a three-part WTR Energy Focus series on Colombia. It follows Oil &amp; Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth… and Striking a Balance Between Energy Security and Fiscal Stability.</li><li>Colombia’s natural gas demand will increase due to an energy transition and upstream operators with gas exposure realizing strong gas prices in an undersupplied market (as shown on right).</li></ul>

The government of Colombia seeks to accelerate the country’s path toward net zero emissions, while investors question the implications for the country’s oil &amp; gas industry.This report is the third in a three-part WTR Energy Focus series on Colombia. It follows Oil &amp; Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth… and Striking a Balance Between Energy Security and Fiscal Stability.Colombia’s natural gas demand will increase due to an energy transition and upstream operators with gas exposure realizing strong gas prices in an undersupplied market (as shown on right).

Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) - The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of £A$0.65 per share: Drilling update in Austria - Drilling operations at the high impact Welchau prospect are now expected to commence on 24 February with a duration of ~39 days.</li>
<li>ADX will now use the RED E200 rig instead of RED E202.</li>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.60 per share: Successful appraisal drilling expected to boost reserves – The CN-5 well encountered 45 feet of Ubaque pay to base of sand with 25% porosity and 5 Darcy permeability.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of £A$0.65 per share: Drilling update in Austria - Drilling operations at the high impact Welchau prospect are now expected to commence on 24 February with a duration of ~39 days.
ADX will now use the RED E200 rig instead of RED E202.
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.60 per share: Successful appraisal drilling expected to boost reserves – The CN-5 well encountered 45 feet of Ubaque pay to base of sand with 25% porosity and 5 Darcy permeability.


<ul><li>Despite Colombia facing challenges growing oil &amp; gas reserves on a national level, the country’s independent operators are scaling up.</li><li>Relative to the size of national oil &amp; gas reserves, Colombia's onshore discoveries in recent years may look marginal at best.</li><li>However, the size of the discoveries can be meaningful for smaller operators.</li></ul>

Despite Colombia facing challenges growing oil &amp; gas reserves on a national level, the country’s independent operators are scaling up.Relative to the size of national oil &amp; gas reserves, Colombia's onshore discoveries in recent years may look marginal at best.However, the size of the discoveries can be meaningful for smaller operators.

Oil & Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth Despite Colombia's Top-Down Challenges

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.</li>
<li>A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.</li>
<li>Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.
A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.
Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.


Canada

Gran Tierra Energy, Inc. is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company operates in South America.

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Gran Tierra Energy Inc (GTE US)

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) - The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas

The government of Colombia seeks to accelerate the country’s path toward net zero emissions, while investors question the implications for the...

Water Tower Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 23/02/2024

Drilling update in Austria - Drilling operations at the high impact Welchau prospect are now expected to commence on 24 February with a duration of...

Auctus Advisors

Oil & Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth Despite Colombia's Top-Down Challenges

Despite Colombia facing challenges growing oil & gas reserves on a national level, the country’s independent operators are scaling up.

Water Tower Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/07/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes...

Auctus Advisors

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