Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the "skew" i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.</li>
<li>This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-06-13/cx-briefing-yuan-trading-of-hong-kong-stocks-expected-for-mainland-investors-102330224.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> Friday.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the "skew" i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025):  HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, "Beautiful Skew Move"

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the May 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that May discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Apr 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as May 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts rose 0.7ppts MoM to about 15% in May 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German brands (VW, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, etc.). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the May 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that May discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Apr 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as May 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts rose 0.7ppts MoM to about 15% in May 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German brands (VW, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, etc.). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - New Models to Stabilize Chinese OEMs’ Discounts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24620:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)</a> in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks.</li>
<li>This change is a surprise to us and there could be a short-term move in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


The iShares A50 China (2823 HK) and CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 June.

Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) will replace Great Wall Motor (601633 CH) in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks.
This change is a surprise to us and there could be a short-term move in the stocks.


China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> deletes were in line with forecasts, and the index committee has used some discretion while picking the index inclusions.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be a further move higher in the 'surprise' adds to the index.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
The SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) deletes were in line with forecasts, and the index committee has used some discretion while picking the index inclusions.
The SSE50 Index adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be a further move higher in the 'surprise' adds to the index.


SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Some Surprises Among the Adds; Deletes as Expected

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.</li>
<li>Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.
Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

Auto - New Models to Stabilize Chinese OEMs’ Discounts

The industrywide average discounts rose 0.7ppts MoM to about 15% in May 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German brands (VW,...

CMB International

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

Bak of Jiangsu will replace Great Wall Motor in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks. The change is a...

Brian Freitas

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Some Surprises Among the Adds; Deletes as Expected

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 and 18 for the SSE180. There are a couple of surprise adds for the SSE50. Basket performance has been consistent...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

AH Premia contracted but it was mostly in the 40-100% area where they did. Tighter than 40% (or H premium) saw Hs underperform. Quiddity alpha...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, "Beautiful Skew Move"

H-shares outperform A-shares dramatically with "beautiful skew" as very wide AH premia shrink most, medium less, smallest premia the least. Feels...

Travis Lundy

Auto - New Models to Stabilize Chinese OEMs’ Discounts

The industrywide average discounts rose 0.7ppts MoM to about 15% in May 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German brands (VW,...

CMB International

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

Bak of Jiangsu will replace Great Wall Motor in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks. The change is a...

Brian Freitas

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Some Surprises Among the Adds; Deletes as Expected

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 and 18 for the SSE180. There are a couple of surprise adds for the SSE50. Basket performance has been consistent...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

AH Premia contracted but it was mostly in the 40-100% area where they did. Tighter than 40% (or H premium) saw Hs underperform. Quiddity alpha...

Travis Lundy