Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.</li>
<li>The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor denied that many employees have resigned recently, but there many complaints from employees on social media.</li>
<li>Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%.</li>
<li>Weibo’s advertising revenue decreased, while most companies’ ad revenues have recovered.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor denied that many employees have resigned recently, but there many complaints from employees on social media.
Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%.
Weibo’s advertising revenue decreased, while most companies’ ad revenues have recovered.


China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Feb 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Jan 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Feb 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts remained largely flat MoM in Feb 2024, partially due to the Chinese New Year (CNY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Feb 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Jan 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Feb 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts remained largely flat MoM in Feb 2024, partially due to the Chinese New Year (CNY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Competition is stiffer than what discounts show

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect was a net buyer again this week, but the streak of consecutive buying since Chinese New Year was broken on Monday. SOEs and...

Travis Lundy

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

The 90% minimum acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer and poor minority AGM/EGM participation rates. Risk/reward...

Arun George

China Consumption Weekly (18 Mar 2024): Great Wall, KE, Tuniu, Tuhu Car, Boss Zhipin, Weibo

The company denied that many employees have resigned recently. Many small companies grew strongly, such as Tuniu up by 140% and Kanzhun up by 46%....

Ming Lu

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

Auto - Competition is stiffer than what discounts show

We summarize the Feb 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report. Note that such discounts for each automaker are...

CMB International

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