Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Green Dot Corp Class A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Green Dot Corporation's latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus.</li><li>The company reported an impressive 24% increase in adjusted revenue and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA, outperforming internal expectations.</li><li>Growth was observed across all three operating segments, indicating a cohesive and forward-moving strategy.</li></ul>

Green Dot Corporation's latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus.The company reported an impressive 24% increase in adjusted revenue and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA, outperforming internal expectations.Growth was observed across all three operating segments, indicating a cohesive and forward-moving strategy.

Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a> was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)</a> were overlooked again.</li>
<li>There will be more same-way flow for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.

DoorDash (DASH US) was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while AppLovin (APP US), Coinbase Global (COIN US) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) were overlooked again.
There will be more same-way flow for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.


[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

United States

Green Dot Corporation operates as a bank holding company that offers personal banking products and services. The Company provides prepaid debit card products, prepaid card reloading services, and mobile banking accounts. Green Dot offers its products and services to consumers across the United States via retail, online, and digital distribution channels.

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Green Dot Corp Class A (GDOT US)

Green Dot’s $2 Billion Opportunity: Why PE Giants and Strategics Are Circling This Embedded Finance Pioneer?

Green Dot Corporation's latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus. The...

Baptista Research

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

There are many changes for the SnP500/400/600 indices in March. The index committee has overlooked high vol stocks. There will be more same-way...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

Q1 has a bunch of deals nearing completion. We could see a couple of intra-review changes before the announcement of the March rebal. I expect we...

Travis Lundy

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

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