Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies. </li><li>GPRE is an early mover in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and its “Advantage Nebraska” carbon reduction strategy is the main driver of earnings.</li><li>GPRE reported 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $71.5 million, a 66% beat versus FactSet consensus of $43 million. </li></ul></div>

Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies. GPRE is an early mover in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and its “Advantage Nebraska” carbon reduction strategy is the main driver of earnings.GPRE reported 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $71.5 million, a 66% beat versus FactSet consensus of $43 million. 

GPRE: 1Q26 EBITDA Beats on Carbon Contribution; 2026 Guidance Raised

<div><ul><li>Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies. </li><li>GPRE is an early mover in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and its “Advantage Nebraska” carbon reduction strategy is the main driver of earnings.</li><li>GPRE reported a strong 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of $49 million (40% beat versus FactSet consensus). </li></ul></div>

Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies. GPRE is an early mover in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and its “Advantage Nebraska” carbon reduction strategy is the main driver of earnings.GPRE reported a strong 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of $49 million (40% beat versus FactSet consensus). 

GPRE: 4Q25 EBITDA Beats on Carbon Strategy and Improved Crush Margins

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.</li>
<li>RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight</li>
<li>We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.
RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight
We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.


Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

<ul><li>GPRE was upbeat on the 3Q25 results call and continued to execute well on the company’s strategy. </li><li>Management started the year with plans to increase profitability, reduce SG&amp;A costs, and position for the launch of its CCS initiatives. </li><li>Now in 3Q25, results have beat analyst expectations, GPRE has started to monetize its CCS strategy, and the company has significantly improved its liquidity and balance sheet. </li></ul>

GPRE was upbeat on the 3Q25 results call and continued to execute well on the company’s strategy. Management started the year with plans to increase profitability, reduce SG&amp;A costs, and position for the launch of its CCS initiatives. Now in 3Q25, results have beat analyst expectations, GPRE has started to monetize its CCS strategy, and the company has significantly improved its liquidity and balance sheet. 

GPRE: 3Q25 EBITDA Beat; Carbon Capture Generating Cash - 5 November 2025

<ul><li>Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.</li><li>This year, the company announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.</li><li>GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). </li></ul>

Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.This year, the company announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). 

Green Plains, Inc: Ethanol Plant Divestment Improves Outlook

United States

Green Plains Inc. owns and operates ethanol plants located in the Midwest U.S. The Company also markets and distributes fuel grade ethanol, livestock feed and industrial grade corn oil. Green Plains provides grain handling, storage and complementary agronomy services to local grain producers through grain elevators located in Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Tennessee.

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Green Plains (GPRE US)

GPRE: 1Q26 EBITDA Beats on Carbon Contribution; 2026 Guidance Raised

Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through...

Water Tower Research

GPRE: 4Q25 EBITDA Beats on Carbon Strategy and Improved Crush Margins

Green Plains’ (GPRE) biorefining operations convert renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through...

Water Tower Research

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

GPRE: 3Q25 EBITDA Beat; Carbon Capture Generating Cash - 5 November 2025

Management started the year with plans to increase profitability, reduce SG&A costs, and position for the launch of its CCS initiatives.

Water Tower Research

Green Plains, Inc: Ethanol Plant Divestment Improves Outlook

Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients...

Water Tower Research

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