Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8954'>Greentown China</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Greentown China

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Vanke’s H/A shares shed 13%/5% yesterday as another wave of negative news flooded the market.</li><li>The company explained the financing challenge it currently faces during the analyst briefing and we believe the openness should help it gain more assistance.</li><li>Demand-side relaxation continued with BJ and SZ taking small moves while the practical impact might be limited. High-frequency data showed a strong WoW recovery in new home market at the month end while the YoY decline remained deep at -47%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vanke’s H/A shares shed 13%/5% yesterday as another wave of negative news flooded the market.The company explained the financing challenge it currently faces during the analyst briefing and we believe the openness should help it gain more assistance.Demand-side relaxation continued with BJ and SZ taking small moves while the practical impact might be limited. High-frequency data showed a strong WoW recovery in new home market at the month end while the YoY decline remained deep at -47%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: Strong WoW recovery at Mar end, policy relaxation continued

Greentown China’s FY 2023 performance was satisfactory in our view, given the above-industry sales, stable top line and acceptable (albeit reduced) gross margin. Importantly, its access to onshore financing appears healthy and liquidity is adequate. In addition, the company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, mostly in high-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta. That said, leverage remained somewhat weak. Moreover, Greentown is more exposed to a prolonged industry downturn (vs. peers such as Longfor Group and China Vanke), due to its low recurring income and outsized exposure to the property development segment. This means that the company's contracted sales and margins are likely to remain soft despite outperforming the industry. In the meantime, Greentown will likely focus on improving operating efficiency by maintaining a high sell-through rate and fast churn for its projects. We revise our fundamental Credit Bias to “Negative” from “Stable”, and move our trade recommendation on the GRNCH 5.95 '24s to "Buy" from "Hold" .

  Greentown China’s FY 2023 performance was satisfactory in our view, given the above-industry sales, stable top line and acceptable (albeit reduced) gross margin. Importantly, its access to onshore financing appears healthy and liquidity is adequate. In addition, the company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, mostly in high-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta.   That said, leverage remained somewhat weak. Moreover, Greentown is more exposed to a prolonged industry downturn (vs. peers such as Longfor Group and China Vanke), due to its low recurring income and outsized exposure to the property development segment. This means that the company's contracted sales and margins are likely to remain soft despite outperforming the industry. In the meantime, Greentown will likely focus on improving operating efficiency by maintaining a high sell-through rate and fast churn for its projects.   We revise our fundamental Credit Bias to “Negative” from “Stable”, and move our trade recommendation on the GRNCH 5.95 '24s to "Buy" from "Hold" . 

Greentown China - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8954'>Greentown China</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green EnergyGreentown China

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greentown China

<ul><li>Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with sound fundamentals experienced an uptick.</li><li>We interpret this as an indication that the market is gradually absorbing the information regarding the potential unforeseen impacts of the implementation of financing-side policies – the project whitelist.</li><li>We think the policy intention is to prevent adding new names to the defaulted list and avoid banks to withdraw project funding only based on risk at developers’ group level regardless of project quality, which caused more construction halting. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with sound fundamentals experienced an uptick.We interpret this as an indication that the market is gradually absorbing the information regarding the potential unforeseen impacts of the implementation of financing-side policies – the project whitelist.We think the policy intention is to prevent adding new names to the defaulted list and avoid banks to withdraw project funding only based on risk at developers’ group level regardless of project quality, which caused more construction halting. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property – Which Projects in Whitelist Are More Likely to Obtain Incremental Loans?

China

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Greentown China (3900 HK)

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Property - Weekly highlight: Strong WoW recovery at Mar end, policy relaxation continued

Vanke’s H/A shares shed 13%/5% yesterday as another wave of negative news flooded the market. The company explained the financing challenge it...

CMB International

Greentown China - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Greentown China’s FY 2023 performance was satisfactory in our view, given the above-industry sales, stable top line and acceptable (albeit...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greentown China

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China Property – Which Projects in Whitelist Are More Likely to Obtain Incremental Loans?

Last Friday, developer names saw mixed performance. In contrast to speculating on defaulted names previously, it is worth noting that stocks with...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)