Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Logan Group, Greentown China, Adani Green Energy</li>
<li>
<p>In the US, the January PPI came in at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.5% revised p) and 3.5% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.5% revised p). The December figures were revised upwards to 0.5% m-o-m and 3.5% y-o-y (from 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The PPI excluding food and energy was 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% revised p) and 3.6% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.7% revised p).</p>
</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Logan Group, Greentown China, Adani Green Energy

In the US, the January PPI came in at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.5% revised p) and 3.5% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.5% revised p). The December figures were revised upwards to 0.5% m-o-m and 3.5% y-o-y (from 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively).


The PPI excluding food and energy was 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% revised p) and 3.6% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.7% revised p).



Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Greentown China, Softbank Group, Bharti Airtel</li>
<li>In the US, the January nonfarm payrolls came in below estimates at 143 k (175 k e / 307 k revised p). That said, payrolls for December were revised upwards to 307 k (from 256 k), with the two-month revision rising to 100 k (from negative 8 k).</li>
<li>The average hourly earnings in January increased to 0.5% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p), and stood at 4.1% y-o-y (3.8% e / 4.1% revised p). The unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in the same month (4.1% e / 4.1% p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Greentown China, Softbank Group, Bharti Airtel
In the US, the January nonfarm payrolls came in below estimates at 143 k (175 k e / 307 k revised p). That said, payrolls for December were revised upwards to 307 k (from 256 k), with the two-month revision rising to 100 k (from negative 8 k).
The average hourly earnings in January increased to 0.5% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p), and stood at 4.1% y-o-y (3.8% e / 4.1% revised p). The unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in the same month (4.1% e / 4.1% p).


Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao</li>
<li>In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.</li>
<li>Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).


China

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Greentown China (3900 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Logan Group, Greentown China, Adani...

Lucror Analytics

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Greentown China, Softbank...

Lucror Analytics

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Logan Group, Greentown China, Adani...

Lucror Analytics

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Greentown China, Softbank...

Lucror Analytics

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...