Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with a few M&amp;A deals that could have consequences for index changes.</li>
<li>We see around three intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and four regular ADDs/DELs during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with a few M&amp;A deals that could have consequences for index changes.
We see around three intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and four regular ADDs/DELs during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Three M&A Deals Coming Up

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>Based on the latest rankings, we see nine regular index changes for the March 2026 rebalance.</li>
<li>The final rankings are based on float market caps at close on 27 February 2026.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
Based on the latest rankings, we see nine regular index changes for the March 2026 rebalance.
The final rankings are based on float market caps at close on 27 February 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar26: 9 ADDs/DELs Likely; Base Date Next Week

Concise Notes to Myself about Companies I Own, Notes To Self

Notes To Self

Concise Notes to Myself about Companies I Own

Notes To Self is a space for me to write… notes to myself… about companies I own in a concise manner. These will not be blow-by-blows; I will only document what I find insightful. The format will be brief, and assume prior knowledge of the company if someone happens to read it. No deep dives, just commentary from a shareholder’s perspective.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>On March 5th, Greggs followed up the January trading update to release the remainder of its FY23 results.</li><li>The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.</li><li>We also learned that the business opened 145 net new shops, bringing the total to 2,473 <em>(+6%)</em>, surpassed its 500th franchise store, and expanded delivery across partners UberEats and JustEat. </li></ul>

On March 5th, Greggs followed up the January trading update to release the remainder of its FY23 results.The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.We also learned that the business opened 145 net new shops, bringing the total to 2,473 (+6%), surpassed its 500th franchise store, and expanded delivery across partners UberEats and JustEat. 

United Kingdom

Greggs plc is a prominent British bakery and fast food chain specializing in 'on-the-go' savoury products like sausage rolls, sandwiches, and pastries, as well as sweet items such as doughnuts and vanilla slices. The company operates over 2,600 shops nationwide and provides breakfast options, drinks, snacks, and salads. Greggs is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, and was founded in 1939.

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Greggs (GRG LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Three M&A Deals Coming Up

We see Iveco, Recordati, and Zabka triggering intra-review DELs in the SE600 before the December 2026 rebal. Currently, we see Azelis, Asmodee, and...

Afridi Reyal

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar26: 9 ADDs/DELs Likely; Base Date Next Week

We expect nine regular index changes in March 2026. All expected changes have small stand-alone flow sizes. The final changes will be based on...

Afridi Reyal

GRG: Half Way There

The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.

Notes To Self

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