European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.</li>
<li>GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.</li>
<li>Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.</li>
</ul>


Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.
GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.
Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Vivendi remains our highest-conviction idea, trading at a 43.6% discount to NAV despite UMG representing over 80% of value and potential corporate optionality.</li>
<li>Dispersion widened in May, with Vivendi rerating, Porsche SE's discount expanding, Rio's DLC premium increasing and Nordic holding companies remaining near NAV.</li>
<li>Catalysts continue to matter more than valuation: discounts converged only where strategic triggers emerged, while structurally cheap names without catalysts remained cheap.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi remains our highest-conviction idea, trading at a 43.6% discount to NAV despite UMG representing over 80% of value and potential corporate optionality.
Dispersion widened in May, with Vivendi rerating, Porsche SE's discount expanding, Rio's DLC premium increasing and Nordic holding companies remaining near NAV.
Catalysts continue to matter more than valuation: discounts converged only where strategic triggers emerged, while structurally cheap names without catalysts remained cheap.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2026 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.</p><p>The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.</p>

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

<ul>
<li>CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.</li>
<li>The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.</li>
<li>At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.</li>
</ul>


CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.
The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.
At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.


Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

<ul>
<li>Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.</li>
<li>Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.
Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

Belgium

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A. is a holding company with interests in energy, media, and utility companies.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces petroleum, manufactures chemicals, operates gasoline filling stations, owns and operates television and radio stations, supplies water, generates and transports electricity, transports natural gas, and offers waste management services.

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Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

June reinforced a stock-pickers' market for holding companies. GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred ideas, while Nordic investment companies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2026 Report

Holding company discounts are increasingly catalyst-driven. Vivendi remains the key idea at a 43.6% NAV discount, while Porsche SE, GBL and Rio...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

CVC and GBL formalised their Recordati take-private at €51.29/share. With financing secured and only ~37% of free float needed, investors are now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

European holdcos remain dispersed: Vivendi at deep discount, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most trade near equilibrium. Convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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