Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Mexican transport sector posted another positive quarterly result.</li>
<li>The company’s efforts to contain costs, a better tariff environment, and diversified revenues resulted in margin expansions.</li>
<li>VOLAR reported the most robust expansion in margins, followed by ASUR.</li>
</ul>


The Mexican transport sector posted another positive quarterly result.
The company’s efforts to contain costs, a better tariff environment, and diversified revenues resulted in margin expansions.
VOLAR reported the most robust expansion in margins, followed by ASUR.


Diversified Revenues and Cost Contention Supported Solid Results

<ul><li>Operating Revenues of P$7.1bn were driven by solid non-aeronautical growth.</li><li>Total operating sales growth of 16% YoY was driven by a solid 32% YoY gain in non-aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by consolidating the cargo and free trade zone business at the Guadalajara airport (GWTC).</li><li>On the other hand, aeronautical revenues (70% of total) increased by 11% YoY because of a 1.4% increase in total PAX and a 14% gain in the aero-weighted average rate.</li></ul>

Operating Revenues of P$7.1bn were driven by solid non-aeronautical growth.Total operating sales growth of 16% YoY was driven by a solid 32% YoY gain in non-aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by consolidating the cargo and free trade zone business at the Guadalajara airport (GWTC).On the other hand, aeronautical revenues (70% of total) increased by 11% YoY because of a 1.4% increase in total PAX and a 14% gain in the aero-weighted average rate.

GAPB MM - Actinver Research - GAP 4Q24: Positive Results, Above Conesus Estimate (Quick View)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV operates and maintains airports in the Pacific and central regions of Mexico.

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi (GAPB MM)

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Diversified Revenues and Cost Contention Supported Solid Results

The Mexican transport sector posted another positive quarterly result. The company’s efforts to contain costs, a better tariff environment, and...

Actinver

GAPB MM - Actinver Research - GAP 4Q24: Positive Results, Above Conesus Estimate (Quick View)

Operating Revenues of P$7.1bn were driven by solid non-aeronautical growth. Total operating sales growth of 16% YoY was driven by a solid 32% YoY...

Actinver

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

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