European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inocsa secures ~98% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-catalana-occidente-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21272:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM)</a> after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.</li>
<li>With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.</li>
<li>GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa secures ~98% of Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM) after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.
With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.
GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.


Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

<ul>
<li>
Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.</li>
<li>
Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.</li>
<li>
Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.</li>
</ul>



Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.

Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.

Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.


Catalana Occidente – Inocsa Sweetens Offer: A Modest Bump Amid Sector Outperformance

<ul>
<li>Inocsa seeks 75%+ control of GCO via a near-fair €49.45/share offer, aiming for strategic delisting. Minority holders risk illiquidity if they do not tender.</li>
<li>GCO’s fundamentals remain strong: 9.2x NTM P/E, 0.9x P/TBV, 242% solvency, and ample excess capital suggest fair value is higher than the offer.</li>
<li>While upside is capped, low risk and firm financing support offer risk-arb desks an annualized ~4% return before a likely late-August settlement.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa seeks 75%+ control of GCO via a near-fair €49.45/share offer, aiming for strategic delisting. Minority holders risk illiquidity if they do not tender.
GCO’s fundamentals remain strong: 9.2x NTM P/E, 0.9x P/TBV, 242% solvency, and ample excess capital suggest fair value is higher than the offer.
While upside is capped, low risk and firm financing support offer risk-arb desks an annualized ~4% return before a likely late-August settlement.


Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

<ul>
<li>Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, representing an 18.3% premium, aiming to consolidate control and delist the company from the Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met.</li>
<li>GCO reported €623 million in FY 2024 net income, with strong solvency (242%) and leading positions in traditional and credit insurance across Spain and over 50 international markets.</li>
<li>With a fair value near €50.68/share and solid fundamentals, minority shareholders receive a full but not generous offer, lacking a typical control premium often seen in similar takeovers.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, representing an 18.3% premium, aiming to consolidate control and delist the company from the Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met.
GCO reported €623 million in FY 2024 net income, with strong solvency (242%) and leading positions in traditional and credit insurance across Spain and over 50 international markets.
With a fair value near €50.68/share and solid fundamentals, minority shareholders receive a full but not generous offer, lacking a typical control premium often seen in similar takeovers.


Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>If you don't think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is cheap to its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.</li>
</ul>


If you don't think Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.

ENN Energy (2688 HK)'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

Spain

Grupo Catalana Occidente, S.A., through subsidiaries, offers insurance.  The Company offers life, accident, health, automobile, marine, freight, and fire insurance.

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Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM)

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Inocsa now controls ~98% of Catalana Occidente after a 94% acceptance rate, enabling a squeeze-out at €49.75. Delisting is imminent and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Catalana Occidente – Inocsa Sweetens Offer: A Modest Bump Amid Sector Outperformance

Inocsa lifts its Catalana Occidente bid to €49.75, a symbolic bump amid financial sector rally; fair optics achieved, but minorities still...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

Inocsa’s €49.45/share bid aims to delist GCO with limited premium but firm financing. For risk-arb PMs, this is a near-locked, low-yield exit...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Inocsa now controls ~98% of Catalana Occidente after a 94% acceptance rate, enabling a squeeze-out at €49.75. Delisting is imminent and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Catalana Occidente – Inocsa Sweetens Offer: A Modest Bump Amid Sector Outperformance

Inocsa lifts its Catalana Occidente bid to €49.75, a symbolic bump amid financial sector rally; fair optics achieved, but minorities still...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

Inocsa’s €49.45/share bid aims to delist GCO with limited premium but firm financing. For risk-arb PMs, this is a near-locked, low-yield exit...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

​Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...