Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stick with our pairs trade long on BanBajio and short on Banorte; we remove BanRegio from buy, as we do not see it to be so compelling on valuations</li>
<li>BanBajio stands out versus both Banorte and Gentera in terms of its PBV ratio discount; in both cases, BanBajio’s PBV discount is c 40%</li>
<li>Based on our updated propietary scorecard, BanBajio remains top with Inbursa bottom of the ranking</li>
</ul>


We stick with our pairs trade long on BanBajio and short on Banorte; we remove BanRegio from buy, as we do not see it to be so compelling on valuations
BanBajio stands out versus both Banorte and Gentera in terms of its PBV ratio discount; in both cases, BanBajio’s PBV discount is c 40%
Based on our updated propietary scorecard, BanBajio remains top with Inbursa bottom of the ranking


Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Mexico has seen increased inflows and exposure over the past 3-4 years, with funds invested reaching an all-time high of 94.6% and average holding weights climbing to 3.93%.</li>
<li>The percentage of active EM funds overweight the benchmark rose from 20% in 2011 to over 69% last month, making Mexico the largest overweight compared country peers.</li>
<li>Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are key contributors to the net Mexican overweight, with Banorte seeing increased exposure of +4.26% of funds in the last 6 months</li>
</ul>


Mexico has seen increased inflows and exposure over the past 3-4 years, with funds invested reaching an all-time high of 94.6% and average holding weights climbing to 3.93%.
The percentage of active EM funds overweight the benchmark rose from 20% in 2011 to over 69% last month, making Mexico the largest overweight compared country peers.
Grupo Financiero Banorte and Wal-Mart de Mexico are key contributors to the net Mexican overweight, with Banorte seeing increased exposure of +4.26% of funds in the last 6 months


Mexico: GEM Funds Wrong-Footed After Election Results.

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Banorte’s solid 4Q22, and the prospect of a healthy dividend payout, have so far trumped concerns of an earnings downturn from credit spread erosion, higher opex and cost of risk</li>
<li>Bank sector data trends to November accentuate the return headwinds that we see emerging; further tightening credit spreads and a rising cost of credit, credit cards a likely leading indicator</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through BBVA equity; we continue to be cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns</li>
</ul>


Banorte’s solid 4Q22, and the prospect of a healthy dividend payout, have so far trumped concerns of an earnings downturn from credit spread erosion, higher opex and cost of risk
Bank sector data trends to November accentuate the return headwinds that we see emerging; further tightening credit spreads and a rising cost of credit, credit cards a likely leading indicator
BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through BBVA equity; we continue to be cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns


Banorte 4Q22 & Mexican Banks’ November Data – Rising Risk of Credit Spread Erosion and NPL Worsening

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality</li>
<li>Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns</li>
</ul>


Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality
Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency
BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns


Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Event-Driven

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Santander’s USD6bn offer for Banamex was rejected by Citi as too low, according to press reports; the estimated valuation range for Banamex is now from USD7bn to USD8bn</li>
<li>This leaves Inbursa, the Mifel-Grupo Mexico consortium and Banorte as contenders, with Banorte still a leading contender</li>
<li>We continue to be cautious on Banorte, as its potential M&amp;A success would mean big challenges in terms of capital requirements, along with portfolio de-risking and unpopular cost-cutting</li>
</ul>


Santander’s USD6bn offer for Banamex was rejected by Citi as too low, according to press reports; the estimated valuation range for Banamex is now from USD7bn to USD8bn
This leaves Inbursa, the Mifel-Grupo Mexico consortium and Banorte as contenders, with Banorte still a leading contender
We continue to be cautious on Banorte, as its potential M&amp;A success would mean big challenges in terms of capital requirements, along with portfolio de-risking and unpopular cost-cutting


Banamex – Now There Are Three Potential Bidders, Still Including Banorte

Mexico

Grupo Financiero Inbursa, SAB de C.V. is a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank manages stock and fixed income funds, and offers fire, transportation, automobile, agriculture, liability, casualty, and health insurance.  Inbursa also offers automobile and equipment lease financing.

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Grupo Financiero Inbursa-O (GFINBURO MM)

Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...

Victor Galliano

Mexico: GEM Funds Wrong-Footed After Election Results.

Pre-election bullishness towards Mexico was at it's highest ever levels in the run up to the election. Managers must now assess whether the new...

Steven Holden

Banorte 4Q22 & Mexican Banks’ November Data – Rising Risk of Credit Spread Erosion and NPL Worsening

The market reacted positively to Banorte’s 4Q22 results, yet from the sector data as well as Banorte's report, we see 2023 challenges from rising...

Victor Galliano

Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead; tightening credit spreads and a potential NPL worsening; we...

Victor Galliano

Banamex – Now There Are Three Potential Bidders, Still Including Banorte

Banorte is expected to bid for Banamex and the risks are skewed against its shareholders; Banorte could need to raise capital and could find it...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mexican Banks – BanBajio (BBAJIO:MM) Remains the Value Play

​We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...

Victor Galliano

Mexico: GEM Funds Wrong-Footed After Election Results.

Pre-election bullishness towards Mexico was at it's highest ever levels in the run up to the election. Managers must now assess whether the new...

Steven Holden

Banorte 4Q22 & Mexican Banks’ November Data – Rising Risk of Credit Spread Erosion and NPL Worsening

The market reacted positively to Banorte’s 4Q22 results, yet from the sector data as well as Banorte's report, we see 2023 challenges from rising...

Victor Galliano

Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead; tightening credit spreads and a potential NPL worsening; we...

Victor Galliano

Banamex – Now There Are Three Potential Bidders, Still Including Banorte

Banorte is expected to bid for Banamex and the risks are skewed against its shareholders; Banorte could need to raise capital and could find it...

Victor Galliano

We keep our pairs trade long on scorecard top-rated BanBajio and short on Banorte, removing BanRegio from the buy list. BanBajio's PBV ratio...