Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A quiet week as most indices - HK and mainland - saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week. </li>
<li>For a couple of months I've thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.</li>
<li>The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.</li>
</ul>


A quiet week as most indices - HK and mainland - saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week. 
For a couple of months I've thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

<ul>
<li>AH Premia fall sharply. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.</li>
<li>For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. That has taken a pause. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.</li>
<li>The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping. Alpha good again this week.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia fall sharply. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. That has taken a pause. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping. Alpha good again this week.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall Sharply; "Feels" Risk-On But Noisy Spreads

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.</li>
<li>Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.</li>
<li>The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price. </li>
<li>The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative. </li>
</ul>



Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price. 
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

Cosco Shipping Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a></strong> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

China

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

A quiet 3-day week ahead of a long Labour Day/Buddha's Birthday weekend shows HK and Mainland shares roughly directionless but AH premia contracted...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall Sharply; "Feels" Risk-On But Noisy Spreads

AH Premia fell this week as HK stocks outperformed A-shares. It isn't clear why but the risk-on market rebounds helped. Still too noisy to take AH...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall on average, but the outperformance is slowing, and the better buying in some sectors (banks) appears to be technically...

Travis Lundy

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

The transaction helps unlock the HoldCo discount. The offer is attractive as it values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)