Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> benefits from increased market turnover.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.

XPeng (9868 HK) announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) benefits from increased market turnover.   Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GAC posted the largest quarterly net loss (RMB1.4bn) in 3Q24 since at least 2013, partly due to the FX loss and lower government grants.</li><li>Management is determined to revive its homegrown brands with a plethora of new models in 2025.</li><li>The market demand for GAC Toyota and GAC Honda has also recovered a bit recently aided by the peak season and stimulus measures.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC posted the largest quarterly net loss (RMB1.4bn) in 3Q24 since at least 2013, partly due to the FX loss and lower government grants.Management is determined to revive its homegrown brands with a plethora of new models in 2025.The market demand for GAC Toyota and GAC Honda has also recovered a bit recently aided by the peak season and stimulus measures.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC Group (2238 HK) - 3Q Miss; New Models, Cost Cut as Key in FY25

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The European Commission has given final approval to extra import tariffs on electric vehicles (EV) shipped from China, after an investigation concluded that state subsidies are enabling Chinese automakers to unfairly undercut their European rivals.</li>
<li>In a statement on Tuesday, the commission said that it has fixed the definitive countervailing duties, which will range from a 7.8% levy for Tesla Inc. cars manufactured in China to up to 35.3% for vehicles made by state-owned SAIC Motor Corp.</li>
<li>The tariffs — which only apply to battery EVs, also known as “pure” EVs — will be in place for five years and will be levied in addition to the EU’s existing import duties of 10% for cars.</li>
</ul>


The European Commission has given final approval to extra import tariffs on electric vehicles (EV) shipped from China, after an investigation concluded that state subsidies are enabling Chinese automakers to unfairly undercut their European rivals.
In a statement on Tuesday, the commission said that it has fixed the definitive countervailing duties, which will range from a 7.8% levy for Tesla Inc. cars manufactured in China to up to 35.3% for vehicles made by state-owned SAIC Motor Corp.
The tariffs — which only apply to battery EVs, also known as “pure” EVs — will be in place for five years and will be levied in addition to the EU’s existing import duties of 10% for cars.


EU Tariffs on Chinese EV Imports Get Final Nod 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).
Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Oct 2024): AH Premia Curve Shift, Wide Premia Brokers Bounce

<ul><li>We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.</li><li>We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.</li><li>As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

China

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company Limited manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company vehicles, motorcycles, and other products. Guangzhou Automobile Group also provides automobile parts manufacturing, automotive business services, automotive finance, and other services.

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Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238 CH)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

GAC Group (2238 HK) - 3Q Miss; New Models, Cost Cut as Key in FY25

GAC posted the largest quarterly net loss (RMB1.4bn) in 3Q24 since at least 2013, partly due to the FX loss and lower government grants.

CMB International

EU Tariffs on Chinese EV Imports Get Final Nod

The European Commission has given final approval to extra import tariffs on electric vehicles (EV) shipped from China, after an investigation...

Caixin Global

A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Oct 2024): AH Premia Curve Shift, Wide Premia Brokers Bounce

AH Premia were somewhat quiet overall for the second week in a row. Wide spreads saw Hs outperform. Narrow spreads saw As outperform. Brokers H...

Travis Lundy

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat...

CMB International

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