Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery</li>
<li>News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)</li>
<li>Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date</li>
<li>The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery
News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)
Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date
The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>China News That Matters</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle</li>
<li>Worried homebuyers – and developers</li>
<li>Forging those new Silk Roads</li>
<li>Copycats no more?</li>
<li>And another thing… Central bank reaches out</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle
Worried homebuyers – and developers
Forging those new Silk Roads
Copycats no more?
And another thing… Central bank reaches out


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial companies or State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) as the only real credit risk. The interest surrounding the recent <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a></strong> IPO is exceptional, but its financial metrics are weak and its creditors face repayment risk. This risk is apparent with many peer IT companies, where debt levels are rising and with weak debt/ebitda. We believe that…</p>

China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial companies or State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) as the only real credit risk. The interest surrounding the recent Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) IPO is exceptional, but its financial metrics are weak and its creditors face repayment risk. This risk is apparent with many peer IT companies, where debt levels are rising and with weak debt/ebitda. We believe that…

Xiaomi and China Banks: Poor China IT Financial Metrics, a Lessor Known Risk to China Banks

Singapore and emerging market real estate

Royston Foo

<p><strong>Seven Singapore property news this week that you need to know.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/047/389/original/capitol.jpg?1521248199" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="47389"></figure><div class="content-caption">Perennial buys Pontiac unit's 50% stake in Capitol Singapore</div><p><a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/cdl-to-launch-new-tampines-condo" target="_blank"><strong>16<sup>th</sup> Mar 2018 – CDL to launch new Tampines Condo</strong></a></p><p><em><strong>Royston Foo</strong></em>: Labelled as the “first premium suburban condominium launch” of the year, buyer response to the launch of The Tapestry will be closely watched by analysts. Developed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1">City Developments Ltd (CIT SP)</a> , The Tapestry is a 99-year leasehold mass-market condominium located along Tampines Ave 10, near to Bedok Reservoir…</p>

Seven Singapore property news this week that you need to know.Perennial buys Pontiac unit's 50% stake in Capitol Singapore16th Mar 2018 – CDL to launch new Tampines CondoRoyston Foo: Labelled as the “first premium suburban condominium launch” of the year, buyer response to the launch of The Tapestry will be closely watched by analysts. Developed by City Developments Ltd (CIT SP) , The Tapestry is a 99-year leasehold mass-market condominium located along Tampines Ave 10, near to Bedok Reservoir…

Singapore Property Weekly Recap (10th Mar to 16th Mar 2018)

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<p>The past 2 weeks have been a volatile period for Asian equity markets, Chinese property developer in particular. Acquisition clamping down on HNA and others have seemed to start the ball rolling. Referring to the table that I put together on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/high-leverage-property-developer-and-rural-bank-stocks-in-china-smells-like-trouble" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10489">High Leverage Property Developer and Rural Bank Stocks in China: Smells Like Trouble?</a> , the only that defied gravity or just above to fall off the cliff is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:227:1">Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties Co Ltd (2777 HK)</a> .</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Ticker (HK)</td>
<td>Company name</td>
<td>PE</td>
<td>Mkt Cap (HKD Bil)</td>
<td>Dvd Yield</td>
<td>D/E</td>
<td>ROA</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

The past 2 weeks have been a volatile period for Asian equity markets, Chinese property developer in particular. Acquisition clamping down on HNA and others have seemed to start the ball rolling. Referring to the table that I put together on High Leverage Property Developer and Rural Bank Stocks in China: Smells Like Trouble? , the only that defied gravity or just above to fall off the cliff is Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties Co Ltd (2777 HK) .

Ticker (HK)
Company name
PE
Mkt Cap (HKD Bil)
Dvd Yield
D/E
ROA

…

Further Fall Expected in Chinese Property Stocks

China

Guangzhou R&F Properties is a Chinese property developer primarily engaged in the design, construction, development, and sale of residential and commercial properties, including hotels, office buildings, and shopping malls. The company also focuses on property investment and hotel operations. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK)

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

After 3 months of consistent slowdown and a dip into outright negative territory, our China Property Indicator is showing signs of recovery News...

Elan Gore

Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

China News That Matters Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle Worried homebuyers – and developers Forging those new Silk...

Diana Choyleva

Xiaomi and China Banks: Poor China IT Financial Metrics, a Lessor Known Risk to China Banks

China’s banks are well-exposed to China’s Information Technology (IT) companies. We may sometimes forget this, where we tend to focus on industrial...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Property Weekly Recap (10th Mar to 16th Mar 2018)

Seven Singapore property news this week that you need to know.16th Mar 2018 – CDL to launch new Tampines CondoRoyston Foo: Labelled as the “first...

Royston Foo

Further Fall Expected in Chinese Property Stocks

The past 2 weeks have been a volatile period for Asian equity markets, Chinese property developer in particular. Acquisition clamping down on HNA...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)