Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW from wind farm projects and up to 1,580 MW from solar farm projects.</li><li>This is a positive development for operators with pending projects that did not pass the RE1 Phase, as they will receive priority consideration.</li><li>Key beneficiaries may include GULF (approximately 1,000-2,000 MW), BGRIM (about 500-800 MW), GPSC (around 300-400 MW), and GUNKUL (approximately 400 MW). </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW from wind farm projects and up to 1,580 MW from solar farm projects.This is a positive development for operators with pending projects that did not pass the RE1 Phase, as they will receive priority consideration.Key beneficiaries may include GULF (approximately 1,000-2,000 MW), BGRIM (about 500-800 MW), GPSC (around 300-400 MW), and GUNKUL (approximately 400 MW). 

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - September 25, 2024

<ul><li>We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.</li><li>Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.</li><li>This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.</li></ul>

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

<ul><li>Over the past month, the SET Index has risen by 137 points (+10%) to 1,427.64 points on the back of increased market confidence, driven by domestic political stability, expectations for government stimulus measures, and capital inflows.</li><li>Within the SET100, 69 companies have seen their stock prices jump by more than 10%. At this juncture, investors may wonder which stocks have the potential to continue rising or which might retreat.</li><li>KTX Research has used our valuation model to select recommended stocks, focusing on those with valuation upgrades, potential for market outperformance, recent earnings growth, and large cap stocks aligned with the Vayupak Fund theme. Our recommendations are CPN, CRC, KTB, TTB, and GULF.</li></ul>

Over the past month, the SET Index has risen by 137 points (+10%) to 1,427.64 points on the back of increased market confidence, driven by domestic political stability, expectations for government stimulus measures, and capital inflows.Within the SET100, 69 companies have seen their stock prices jump by more than 10%. At this juncture, investors may wonder which stocks have the potential to continue rising or which might retreat.KTX Research has used our valuation model to select recommended stocks, focusing on those with valuation upgrades, potential for market outperformance, recent earnings growth, and large cap stocks aligned with the Vayupak Fund theme. Our recommendations are CPN, CRC, KTB, TTB, and GULF.

Special Report – Stocks with the Potential to Outperform/ Underperform - Sep 9, 2024

Thailand

Gulf Development Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in a diversified portfolio including conventional and renewable power generation, natural gas supply and distribution, infrastructure development, and digital businesses. It develops and manages gas-fired, solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and waste-to-energy projects. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 2007.

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Gulf Development (GULF TB)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - September 25, 2024

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Stocks with the Potential to Outperform/ Underperform - Sep 9, 2024

Over the past month, the SET Index has risen by 137 points (+10%) to 1,427.64 points on the back of increased market confidence, driven by domestic...

Krungthai XSpring

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