Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>CGS: 3Q21 Road Show</h2><ul>
<li><h3>Performance review of CGS‘s stock picks</h3></li>
<li><h3>CGS Strategy</h3></li>
<li>
<h3>Our stock picks for 3Q21</h3>
<ul><li><ul>
<li>
<strong>KBANK</strong>:  Most benefit amongst big banks post-COVID recovery</li>
<li>
<strong>EPG</strong>: Global-standard polymer converter assured of sustainable growth</li>
<li>
<strong><strong>CKP:</strong></strong> Positive 2021-22 outlook from the better hydro operation</li>
</ul></li></ul>
</li>
<li>
<h3>Power sector</h3>
<ul><li><ul>
<li>
<strong>RATCH</strong>: Stable earnings outlook and a high dividend yield</li>
<li>
<strong>GULF</strong>: Earning growth and upside from INTUCH investment</li>
</ul></li></ul>
</li>
</ul>

CGS: 3Q21 Road Show
Performance review of CGS‘s stock picks
CGS Strategy

Our stock picks for 3Q21


KBANK:  Most benefit amongst big banks post-COVID recovery

EPG: Global-standard polymer converter assured of sustainable growth

CKP: Positive 2021-22 outlook from the better hydro operation



Power sector


RATCH: Stable earnings outlook and a high dividend yield

GULF: Earning growth and upside from INTUCH investment




<p><strong>BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Earnings upcycle in 2021:</strong> We expect BCPG, GULF and GUNKUL to achieve 15 to 30% net profit growth during 2021 on the back 12 to 30% power generation capacity expansion in 2020-21 period.</li>
<li>
<strong>Declining gas price to support SPP performance:</strong> The industrial user power sales of SPP players BGRIM, GPSC and GULF (accounting 10 to 20% of the revenue) has rebound to pre – COVID 19 levels as of 4Q20.  We expect the declining gas cost (-10% YoY) will help in revamping the GPM and support the sector performance.</li>
</ul><p><strong>EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Cheap valuation:</strong> The stock price of EGCO and RATCH faced 70% and 30% fall in 2020 respectively. The stocks are trading very cheap at 9 to 13x PE’21E and having the companies already overcome the COVID-19 impact we believe the price correction has created an investment opportunity.</li>
<li>
<strong>Decent dividend yield:</strong> We expect RATCH and EGCO to pay a decent dividend yield of 3.3 to 4.4% in 2021.</li>
</ul><p><strong>Maintain HOLD rating on BGRIM, EA and GPSC</strong></p><ul><li>We have a positive view on BGRIM and GPSC as the SPP players will benefit from declining gas price. However, due to limit upside from current share price we maintain the HOLD rating. We recommend to HOLD EA, as the stock performance will depend on new EV-ESS business success and valuation demands.</li></ul>

BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks

Earnings upcycle in 2021: We expect BCPG, GULF and GUNKUL to achieve 15 to 30% net profit growth during 2021 on the back 12 to 30% power generation capacity expansion in 2020-21 period.

Declining gas price to support SPP performance: The industrial user power sales of SPP players BGRIM, GPSC and GULF (accounting 10 to 20% of the revenue) has rebound to pre – COVID 19 levels as of 4Q20.  We expect the declining gas cost (-10% YoY) will help in revamping the GPM and support the sector performance.
EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks

Cheap valuation: The stock price of EGCO and RATCH faced 70% and 30% fall in 2020 respectively. The stocks are trading very cheap at 9 to 13x PE’21E and having the companies already overcome the COVID-19 impact we believe the price correction has created an investment opportunity.

Decent dividend yield: We expect RATCH and EGCO to pay a decent dividend yield of 3.3 to 4.4% in 2021.
Maintain HOLD rating on BGRIM, EA and GPSCWe have a positive view on BGRIM and GPSC as the SPP players will benefit from declining gas price. However, due to limit upside from current share price we maintain the HOLD rating. We recommend to HOLD EA, as the stock performance will depend on new EV-ESS business success and valuation demands.

Thailand Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 Performance

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our projection of 2Y core EPS growth at a 12% CAGR, outperforming the sector.</li><li>We also have a positive view on the current valuation with substantial upside potential from the new 12M FV of Bt64.75, based on a required return of 2.9% after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt58.00, 3.2%, and 6.83%). </li></ul>

2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our projection of 2Y core EPS growth at a 12% CAGR, outperforming the sector.We also have a positive view on the current valuation with substantial upside potential from the new 12M FV of Bt64.75, based on a required return of 2.9% after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt58.00, 3.2%, and 6.83%). 

Gulf Development - Portfolio, Earnings, and Growth Potential

<ul><li>We expect strong 2Q25E core profit and standout QoQ net profit growth, supported by a gain from bargain purchases.</li><li>We revise up our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 8-9% and raise our 12M FV to Bt58.00 (from Bt53.75).</li><li>We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to peers, amid neutral tactical risk.</li></ul>

We expect strong 2Q25E core profit and standout QoQ net profit growth, supported by a gain from bargain purchases.We revise up our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 8-9% and raise our 12M FV to Bt58.00 (from Bt53.75).We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to peers, amid neutral tactical risk.

Gulf Development - Strong 2Q25E Core Profit/Outstanding NP

<ul><li>Net profit and core profit in 1Q25 were in line with expectations. We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecast and expect a 2-year core EPS CAGR of 12%, outperforming the sector.</li><li>The current valuation reflects a positive outlook, and downside risk to the share price appears limited from a tactical perspective.</li><li>We maintain our Outperform rating (FV Bt68.75).</li></ul>

Net profit and core profit in 1Q25 were in line with expectations. We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecast and expect a 2-year core EPS CAGR of 12%, outperforming the sector.The current valuation reflects a positive outlook, and downside risk to the share price appears limited from a tactical perspective.We maintain our Outperform rating (FV Bt68.75).

Gulf Development - In-Line 1Q25 NP; Maintain Solid Earnings Outlook

Thailand

Gulf Development Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in a diversified portfolio including conventional and renewable power generation, natural gas supply and distribution, infrastructure development, and digital businesses. It develops and manages gas-fired, solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and waste-to-energy projects. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 2007.

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Gulf Development (GULF TB)

3Q21 Road Show

CGS's roadshow : Performance review of CGS ‘s stock picks, CGS Strategy, Our stock picks for 3Q21, Power sector outlook 3Q21

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Thailand Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 Performance

Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 sector performance. BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks. EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Gulf Development - Portfolio, Earnings, and Growth Potential

2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.

Krungthai XSpring

Gulf Development - Strong 2Q25E Core Profit/Outstanding NP

We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to...

Krungthai XSpring

Gulf Development - In-Line 1Q25 NP; Maintain Solid Earnings Outlook

Net profit and core profit in 1Q25 were in line with expectations. We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecast and expect a 2-year core EPS CAGR...

Krungthai XSpring

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