HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. </li>
<li>We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. </li>
<li>MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. 
We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. 
MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>  is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.</li>
<li>The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.</li>
<li>Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)  is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.
The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.
Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.


Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group</a> is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.


MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

China

Guming Holdings Limited is a holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of freshly made beverages through its "Good me" brand. It operates a franchised tea store retail network, offering fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee beverages. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Guming (1364 HK)

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

Mixue’s upcoming IPO valuations appear attractive, given robust growth track record, even amid a slowdown, and cost advantages that underpin long...

Devi Subhakesan

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

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MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

​MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

Mixue’s upcoming IPO valuations appear attractive, given robust growth track record, even amid a slowdown, and cost advantages that underpin long...

Devi Subhakesan

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...