Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Conglomerate <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group (53 HK)</a></strong> has fielded three privatisation Offers from Guoline (the Quek family) over the past twenty years. </li>
<li>Elliott Advisors, then holding 9.72% of shares out, backed the most recent Offer of HK$135/share in November 2018; but it was voted down at a Scheme Meeting. </li>
<li>Elliott has now, surprisingly, exited. This <em>may</em> open the door for a fourth Offer. Shares popped 14% on the news.  </li>
</ul>


Conglomerate Guoco Group (53 HK) has fielded three privatisation Offers from Guoline (the Quek family) over the past twenty years. 
Elliott Advisors, then holding 9.72% of shares out, backed the most recent Offer of HK$135/share in November 2018; but it was voted down at a Scheme Meeting. 
Elliott has now, surprisingly, exited. This may open the door for a fourth Offer. Shares popped 14% on the news.  


<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a></strong> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a></strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a></strong> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a></strong> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0128/2022012800929.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> last Friday it intends to buy back 8.43% of shares out from Elliott Investment Management for HK$2.9bn ($373mn), paying HK$11.19/share.</li>
<li>The share buyback is expected to result in a 6% increase in the consolidated net asset value per share.</li>
<li>Conditions to the buyback appear straightforward. BEA is trading cheap at 0.3x P/B. </li>
</ul>



Bank of East Asia (23 HK) announced last Friday it intends to buy back 8.43% of shares out from Elliott Investment Management for HK$2.9bn ($373mn), paying HK$11.19/share.
The share buyback is expected to result in a 6% increase in the consolidated net asset value per share.
Conditions to the buyback appear straightforward. BEA is trading cheap at 0.3x P/B. 


<div>
<p>Singaporean property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singhaiyi-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19307:1" rel="noopener">SingHaiyi (SHG SP)</a> has announced a <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer_Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=689919" target="_blank" rel="noopener">voluntary conditional cash Offer</a> from Gordan and Celine Tang, who control 75.56% of shares out. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Offer Price of S$0.117/share is an 8.3% premium to last close and 0.78x P/NAV. The acceptance condition is 90%, including the Tang's stake, although the Tang's reserve the right to reduce this to 50%. Family members with 2.81% have given an irrecoverable to tender into the Offer taking the accumulated holding to 78.37%. Save for the acceptance condition, the Offer is unconditional in all other respects.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This appears a relatively listless Offer premium, however, it pitches SingHaiyi around a multi-year high. The Offer has not been declared final.</p>
<p>The entire construct is reminiscent of the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2540:1" rel="noopener">GL Ltd (GLL SP)</a> - <em><a href="https://skr.ma/SdJKh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco</a></em> - which was successfully completed after terms were bumped. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


Singaporean property play SingHaiyi (SHG SP) has announced a voluntary conditional cash Offer from Gordan and Celine Tang, who control 75.56% of shares out. 


The Offer Price of S$0.117/share is an 8.3% premium to last close and 0.78x P/NAV. The acceptance condition is 90%, including the Tang's stake, although the Tang's reserve the right to reduce this to 50%. Family members with 2.81% have given an irrecoverable to tender into the Offer taking the accumulated holding to 78.37%. Save for the acceptance condition, the Offer is unconditional in all other respects.


This appears a relatively listless Offer premium, however, it pitches SingHaiyi around a multi-year high. The Offer has not been declared final.
The entire construct is reminiscent of the Offer from Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK) for GL Ltd (GLL SP) - GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco - which was successfully completed after terms were bumped. 


As always, more below the fold.


SingHaiyi Group (SHG SP): Tang's Conditional Offer

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Following Yue Xiu's privatization Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chong-hing-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:344:1" rel="noopener">Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK)</a>, Hong Kong's remaining  "family"-owned banks, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a> (BEA), are back in focus. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a> is trading cheap to its historical NAV discount range, and the 14.94% holding in BEA accounts for 15% of its NAV.</p>
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</div>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Guoco are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...



Following Yue Xiu's privatization Offer for Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK), Hong Kong's remaining  "family"-owned banks, such as Bank of East Asia (23 HK) (BEA), are back in focus. Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK) is trading cheap to its historical NAV discount range, and the 14.94% holding in BEA accounts for 15% of its NAV.



Preceding my comments on Guoco are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Guoco/BEA Into Focus Post Chong Hing Bank Bid

Hong Kong

Guoco Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties as well as provides stock, commodity and bullion broking, insurance, and fund management services.

Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)

Guoco (53 HK): Fourth Time's A Charm?

I like Guoco Group (53 HK) here either as a potential privatisation play from the Quek family or simply as a deep value play.

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

What Now For BEA After Elliott Walks?

This buyback removes a significant long-term overhang. At the current price, BEA is simply inexpensive. I'd be picking up shares around these levels.

David Blennerhassett

SingHaiyi Group (SHG SP): Tang's Conditional Offer

The Offer has not been declared final. I think there's probably enough here to get the deal over the line. I would not chase this much through...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Guoco/BEA Into Focus Post Chong Hing Bank Bid

Following the privatization Offer for Chong Hing, Bank of East Asia is back in focus. Guoco is trading cheap to its historical NAV discount range,...

David Blennerhassett