Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.</li>
<li>It was a busy week for placements as well, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.
It was a busy week for placements as well, with Liontown Resources (LTR AU)'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. 


ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Guoquan’s model is easy to replicate.The so-called “moat” is all based on scale effects, without which Guoquan would lose competitiveness.This is why Guoquan has been striving to expand franchised stores.</li>
<li>With the increasing frequency of people dining out after China reopens, the high-speed expansion in 2020 seems unsustainable. To B model has less growth space/potential than To C model.</li>
<li>In such a fiercely competitive market, Guoquan's long-term development logic is not solid. The current temporary improvement in financial performance is likely to be a flash in the pan.</li>
</ul>


Guoquan’s model is easy to replicate.The so-called “moat” is all based on scale effects, without which Guoquan would lose competitiveness.This is why Guoquan has been striving to expand franchised stores.
With the increasing frequency of people dining out after China reopens, the high-speed expansion in 2020 seems unsustainable. To B model has less growth space/potential than To C model.
In such a fiercely competitive market, Guoquan's long-term development logic is not solid. The current temporary improvement in financial performance is likely to be a flash in the pan.


Pre-IPO Guoquan Food (Shanghai) - High Growth May Not Be Sustainable; Long Logic Doesn't Hold Water

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a> delivered some joy to the Indian equity markets over the past week.</li>
<li>There were no major placements over the past week but there were some lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Mankind Pharma delivered some joy to the Indian equity markets over the past week.
There were no major placements over the past week but there were some lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (14th May 2023) - Mankind, Nexus REIT, SCG Chemicals, Guoquan, Shiyue, Medanta, Bikaji

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.</li>
<li>As of Dec 22, its container shipping network covers a total of 24 countries and regions, 63 major ports and 42 services globally.</li>
</ul>



T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
As of Dec 22, its container shipping network covers a total of 24 countries and regions, 63 major ports and 42 services globally.


China

Guoquan Food operates as a home meal products company in Mainland China, offering ready-to-eat, ready-to-heat, and ready-to-cook meals, including hotpot and barbecue ingredients, condiments, beverages, fresh food, western food, and snacks. The company sells its products through a franchised retail store network under the "Guoquan Shihui" brand and online channels. It is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2015.

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Guoquan Food (2517 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

Pre-IPO Guoquan Food (Shanghai) - High Growth May Not Be Sustainable; Long Logic Doesn't Hold Water

Guoquan's franchise model doesn't have high moat.Scale effect is fading after people change eating habits/cut back on spending. Previous high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ECM Weekly (14th May 2023) - Mankind, Nexus REIT, SCG Chemicals, Guoquan, Shiyue, Medanta, Bikaji

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO Tearsheet

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily...

Clarence Chu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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