IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> all-scrip merger is set at an exchange ratio of 0.62x. </li>
<li>The merger is conditional on the GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote, which is low risk. Regulatory approvals are a formality as they involve two entities with SOE backgrounds. </li>
<li>The share exchange ratio is attractive compared to historical price ratios and precedent transactions. The recent material re-rating of peers is irrelevant to the vote as the offer is all-scrip. </li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) all-scrip merger is set at an exchange ratio of 0.62x. 
The merger is conditional on the GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote, which is low risk. Regulatory approvals are a formality as they involve two entities with SOE backgrounds. 
The share exchange ratio is attractive compared to historical price ratios and precedent transactions. The recent material re-rating of peers is irrelevant to the vote as the offer is all-scrip. 


Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> were suspended around a month ago, pending a merger, a basket of peers are up 37%. </li>
<li>The Shanghai Composite is up 21%. Volumes are up, commissions are up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:164:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (600030 CH)</a>, the largest broker by market cap, is up 42% in the past month. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> is also up ~45% in recent weeks due to its 40.3% look-through stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>.  The question: how much more in the tank?</li>
</ul>


Since Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) were suspended around a month ago, pending a merger, a basket of peers are up 37%. 
The Shanghai Composite is up 21%. Volumes are up, commissions are up. Citic Securities (600030 CH), the largest broker by market cap, is up 42% in the past month. 

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) is also up ~45% in recent weeks due to its 40.3% look-through stake in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH).  The question: how much more in the tank?


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): "Cheap" Access To Zheshang Securities

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. </li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 108.9% as of Sep 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by consumer staples, communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 108.9% as of Sep 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by consumer staples, communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 27th):China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Haidilao International Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is now the top-performing major world market this year.  With a large valuation disparity, both Hong Kong's and China's markets have more upside potential.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> are benefiting from the improvement in consumer sentiment with government stimulus targeting housing payments and consumption.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> surged in anticipation of increased market trading and IPOs.  Industry consolidation is also part of the improved sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is now the top-performing major world market this year.  With a large valuation disparity, both Hong Kong's and China's markets have more upside potential.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) are benefiting from the improvement in consumer sentiment with government stimulus targeting housing payments and consumption.

Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) surged in anticipation of increased market trading and IPOs.  Industry consolidation is also part of the improved sentiment.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (601211 CH)

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal

The share exchange ratio is attractive. Regulatory approvals are a formality. The GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote is low risk. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): "Cheap" Access To Zheshang Securities

I question the sustainabilty. Arguably, these brokerage stocks are not trading with any specific fundamental in mind; but one in which investors...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

For the month of Sep, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$23bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 27th):China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

HSI is the top performing major global index heading into 4Q2024. Haidilao and Anta both benefit from improved sentiment in consumer sector. Citic...

David Mudd

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