HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment (TRT HK)

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment

<ul>
<li>Tong Ren Tang’s performance growth is mainly driven by M&amp;As, or “purchase revenue externally” to expand scale. As the pace of acquisition/integration slows down, overall growth will also decline accordingly.</li>
<li>Although Tong Ren Tang has turned losses into profits, the Company is still in expansion period and profits are unstable.So, we think it’s more appropriate to use P/S for valuation.</li>
<li>Tong Ren Tang is inferior to Gushengtang in terms of profitability and capital operation model for expansion. So, Tong Ren Tang’s valuation should be lower than Gushengtang and industry average.</li>
</ul>


Tong Ren Tang’s performance growth is mainly driven by M&amp;As, or “purchase revenue externally” to expand scale. As the pace of acquisition/integration slows down, overall growth will also decline accordingly.
Although Tong Ren Tang has turned losses into profits, the Company is still in expansion period and profits are unstable.So, we think it’s more appropriate to use P/S for valuation.
Tong Ren Tang is inferior to Gushengtang in terms of profitability and capital operation model for expansion. So, Tong Ren Tang’s valuation should be lower than Gushengtang and industry average.


Pre-IPO Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Anta (2020 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Anta (2020 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Anta (2020 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Anta (2020 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 3rd): Tencent, Anta, Hang Seng Bank

<ul>
<li>TCMTech’s business model is directly targeted at industry pain points.The innovation point lies in using AI technology and offline clinics to break the time/space limitations of traditional TCM business model. </li>
<li>The current revenue scale is small. We have already seen a sharp decline of YoY revenue growth in 24Q1-Q3, thus raising questions about the sustainability of future growth momentum.</li>
<li>Considering Gushengtang's scale, business model, and the control of core renowned physician resources have been validated by the market, we think that TCMTech’s reasonable valuation should be lower than Gushengtang.</li>
</ul>


TCMTech’s business model is directly targeted at industry pain points.The innovation point lies in using AI technology and offline clinics to break the time/space limitations of traditional TCM business model. 
The current revenue scale is small. We have already seen a sharp decline of YoY revenue growth in 24Q1-Q3, thus raising questions about the sustainability of future growth momentum.
Considering Gushengtang's scale, business model, and the control of core renowned physician resources have been validated by the market, we think that TCMTech’s reasonable valuation should be lower than Gushengtang.


Pre-IPO TCMTech - The Business Model and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB, Xiaomi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.</li>
<li>MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.</li>
</ul>


Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.
MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?
Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

China

Gushengtang provides traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) medical and health services, including consultations, diagnosis, prescriptions, and physical therapies, alongside the sale of medicinal herbs and nourishment. The company operates through an Online-Merge-Offline (OMO) model, integrating physical medical institutions with online healthcare platforms. Gushengtang was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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Gushengtang (2273 HK)

Pre-IPO Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Tong Ren Tang's growth driven by M&A. As acquisitions slow, growth will decline.Profits unstable, P/S valuation more appropriate.Valuation should...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 3rd): Tencent, Anta, Hang Seng Bank

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO TCMTech - The Business Model and the Outlook

TCMTech’s business model and TCM Brain have advantages. However, we doubt whether TCMTech can still maintain such high revenue in the long run....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Tong Ren Tang's growth driven by M&A. As acquisitions slow, growth will decline.Profits unstable, P/S valuation more appropriate.Valuation should...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 3rd): Tencent, Anta, Hang Seng Bank

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO TCMTech - The Business Model and the Outlook

TCMTech’s business model and TCM Brain have advantages. However, we doubt whether TCMTech can still maintain such high revenue in the long run....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

​National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tong Ren Tang's growth driven by M&A. As acquisitions slow, growth will decline.Profits unstable, P/S valuation more appropriate.Valuation should...

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...