HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q23 is expected to achieve over 40% YoY growth. 2023 overall performance would be better than previous guidance- Revenue up 40+% YoY and adjusted net profit up about 45% YoY.</li>
<li>With abundant cash flow, Gushengtang has increased dividend payouts and share buyback, indicating that the current stock price is undervalued and has not yet reflected its high growth expectations/healthy fundamentals.</li>
<li>Gushengtang has cross-regional expansion capability. The "sustainability" + "high growth" of performance are worth noting. Depressed sentiment/complex external environment provide a good buying opportunity. Rebound in stock price is expected.</li>
</ul>


3Q23 is expected to achieve over 40% YoY growth. 2023 overall performance would be better than previous guidance- Revenue up 40+% YoY and adjusted net profit up about 45% YoY.
With abundant cash flow, Gushengtang has increased dividend payouts and share buyback, indicating that the current stock price is undervalued and has not yet reflected its high growth expectations/healthy fundamentals.
Gushengtang has cross-regional expansion capability. The "sustainability" + "high growth" of performance are worth noting. Depressed sentiment/complex external environment provide a good buying opportunity. Rebound in stock price is expected.


Gushengtang (2273.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Performance Would Exceed Expectations

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for Meituan and Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for Meituan and Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 13th): Meituan, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, CCB, China Mobile, CNOOC, HKEX.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, CCB, China Mobile, CNOOC, HKEX.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $8.8bn Outflows

<ul>
<li>China has started taking measures to optimize fertility policies. The inclusion of assisted reproduction technologies in medical insurance is a general trend, which would generate increasing demand in the future.</li>
<li>From the current domestic assisted reproductive industry chain, there is significant import substitution space and growth potential in the fields of related drugs, prenatal/newborn genetic testing, and downstream medical services.</li>
<li>Companies such as Livzon/BGI/Jinxin would be the direct beneficiaries of related policy. We analyzed the industry characteristics, investment rationale, key risks and comparison with peers of these companies. </li>
</ul>


China has started taking measures to optimize fertility policies. The inclusion of assisted reproduction technologies in medical insurance is a general trend, which would generate increasing demand in the future.
From the current domestic assisted reproductive industry chain, there is significant import substitution space and growth potential in the fields of related drugs, prenatal/newborn genetic testing, and downstream medical services.
Companies such as Livzon/BGI/Jinxin would be the direct beneficiaries of related policy. We analyzed the industry characteristics, investment rationale, key risks and comparison with peers of these companies. 


China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series - Part 1

Equity Capital Markets

Deshengtang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Deshengtang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (DESE HK)

<ul>
<li>Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.</li>
<li>The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. </li>
<li>However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.</li>
</ul>


Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.
The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. 
However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.


Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical - Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

China

Gushengtang provides traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) medical and health services, including consultations, diagnosis, prescriptions, and physical therapies, alongside the sale of medicinal herbs and nourishment. The company operates through an Online-Merge-Offline (OMO) model, integrating physical medical institutions with online healthcare platforms. Gushengtang was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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Gushengtang (2273 HK)