External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision charges in 2Q2026 vs. reversal recorded in SPLY.</li>
<li>On sequential basis, earnings are expected to decrease by 10% mainly due to higher capital gains recorded in 1Q2026 by select banks.</li>
<li>We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Meezan Bank (MEBL), and Habib Bank (HBL) as our top picks.</li>
</ul>


Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision charges in 2Q2026 vs. reversal recorded in SPLY.
On sequential basis, earnings are expected to decrease by 10% mainly due to higher capital gains recorded in 1Q2026 by select banks.
We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Meezan Bank (MEBL), and Habib Bank (HBL) as our top picks.


Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 10% QoQ in 2Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Capital Gain

<ul><li>The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has removed the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) requirement on Trusts, Private limited businesses and for Individual deposits (exceeding Rs10mn).</li><li>As per latest circular, central bank has removed MDR applicability on Trusts, private limited businesses regardless of deposit size and on individual deposits of over Rs10mn.</li><li>The objective of removing MDR condition is to compensate banks on remittances cost side as Govt has discontinued Telegraphic Transfer Charges Incentive Scheme (TTCIS), which was a sort of subsidy provided to financial institutions to attract remittances through formal channel.</li></ul>

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has removed the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) requirement on Trusts, Private limited businesses and for Individual deposits (exceeding Rs10mn).As per latest circular, central bank has removed MDR applicability on Trusts, private limited businesses regardless of deposit size and on individual deposits of over Rs10mn.The objective of removing MDR condition is to compensate banks on remittances cost side as Govt has discontinued Telegraphic Transfer Charges Incentive Scheme (TTCIS), which was a sort of subsidy provided to financial institutions to attract remittances through formal channel.

Pakistan Banks: Central Bank Amends MDR Rules; MDR Removed on Trusts, Pvt Limited, and Individuals

Equity Bottom-Up

National Bank of Pakistan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses.</li><li>While on a sequential basis, earnings are expected to decline 6%, mainly due to lower capital gains and FX income.</li><li>Non-interest expenses are likely to increase by 14% YoY to Rs251bn in 3Q26, mainly due to higher marketing costs, increased compensation expenses associated with branch expansion at select banks, and a one-off adjustment at NBP.</li></ul>

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses.While on a sequential basis, earnings are expected to decline 6%, mainly due to lower capital gains and FX income.Non-interest expenses are likely to increase by 14% YoY to Rs251bn in 3Q26, mainly due to higher marketing costs, increased compensation expenses associated with branch expansion at select banks, and a one-off adjustment at NBP.

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 6% QoQ in 3Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Non-Interest Income

<ul><li>Pakistan listed banks profitability clocked in Rs173bn in 1Q2026, showing flattish trend YoY despite the decline in interest rates, The sector’s non-interest income has increased 26% YoY and 18% QoQ.</li><li>Deposit of banks are up 12% YoY while loan book has witnessed rise of 8% YoY in 1Q2026.</li><li>The sector's total coverage ratio stands at 114% in 1Q2026.</li></ul>

Pakistan listed banks profitability clocked in Rs173bn in 1Q2026, showing flattish trend YoY despite the decline in interest rates, The sector’s non-interest income has increased 26% YoY and 18% QoQ.Deposit of banks are up 12% YoY while loan book has witnessed rise of 8% YoY in 1Q2026.The sector's total coverage ratio stands at 114% in 1Q2026.

<ul><li>Pakistan’s listed banks reported profitability of Rs174bn in 1Q2026, slightly up 1% YoY and 8% QoQ.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, profits were driven by 15% growth in non-interest income to Rs170bn, thanks to higher capital gains on investments recorded during the quarter.</li><li>While Net Interest Income (NII) remained largely flattish on QoQ basis despite decline in interest rate in Dec 2025, due to banks’ focus on current account deposits coupled with slight volumetric growth.</li></ul>

Pakistan’s listed banks reported profitability of Rs174bn in 1Q2026, slightly up 1% YoY and 8% QoQ.On a QoQ basis, profits were driven by 15% growth in non-interest income to Rs170bn, thanks to higher capital gains on investments recorded during the quarter.While Net Interest Income (NII) remained largely flattish on QoQ basis despite decline in interest rate in Dec 2025, due to banks’ focus on current account deposits coupled with slight volumetric growth.

Pakistan Banks: Listed Banks Profitability Up 8% QoQ; Non-Interest Income Up 15% QoQ Led By Realization Of Capital Gains

Pakistan

Habib Bank Ltd operates commercial bank in Pakistan. The Bank offers commercial, corporate, Investment, retail and International Group Banking.

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Habib Bank Ltd (HBL PA)

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 10% QoQ in 2Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Capital Gain

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 2Q2026, due to a higher operating expenses coupled with provision...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Banks: Central Bank Amends MDR Rules; MDR Removed on Trusts, Pvt Limited, and Individuals

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has removed the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) requirement on Trusts, Private limited businesses and for Individual...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Banks: Earnings to Decrease 6% QoQ in 3Q2026; Led by Absence of Abnormal Non-Interest Income

Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings decline of 1% YoY in 3Q2026 mainly due to higher operating expenses. While on a sequential...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Listed Banks Comp Sheet

Pakistan listed banks profitability clocked in Rs173bn in 1Q2026, showing flattish trend YoY despite the decline in interest rates, The sector’s...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Banks: Listed Banks Profitability Up 8% QoQ; Non-Interest Income Up 15% QoQ Led By Realization Of Capital Gains

Pakistan’s listed banks reported profitability of Rs174bn in 1Q2026, slightly up 1% YoY and 8% QoQ. On a QoQ basis, profits were driven by 15%...

Topline Securities

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